If you missed Part 1: The Lineup and Bench, you can find it here.

Starters:

Roy Halladay, RHP

Cole Hamels, LHP

Joe Blanton, RHP

JA Happ, LHP

Jamie Moyer, LHP/Kyle Kendrick, RHP

Roy Halladay is a true ace.  Cliff Lee is a true ace.  Roy Halladay is a slightly better ace than Cliff Lee.  It’s a first world problem in a baseball sense, but it is an upgrade.  Then when you factor in Halladay’s move from the AL East to the NL East and that he will be around for the entire season, the top of the Phillies rotation received a major upgrade.

The stat guys have been telling us Cole Hamels’ sub-par 2009 can be attributed to bad luck, and they are not incorrect.  I’m just not sure why we needed the stat guys to tell us that.  If you watched most or all of Hamels’ 32 starts last season, you saw more hits fall in front of the centerfielder or just over the second baseman’s head than any pitcher should reasonably expect to have to deal with.  I also saw two other (possibly related) things that contributed to the frustrating season.  First, Cole had a tendency to let mistakes compound on him, which is something that didn’t happen in his NLCS/World Series MVP ‘08 season.  That could have been attributed to a poor mental approach or the second thing, which is that he needs at least one other pitch to go with his fastball/change up combo.  Last season, Hamels’ curveball was completely ineffective which meant that hitters could sit on either his fastball or change and when a major league hitter can sit on a pitch, no matter how good, he can usually do something with it.  And even if he can’t, or doesn’t get exactly what he is looking for, he can usually fight it off for a cheap hit.  That, I think, more than bad luck, was the reason for Cole’s poor ‘09 season.  Early reports out of spring training this year are positive regarding Hamels’ mental and physical condition (then again, aren’t all spring training reports positive?), and if he really does add a cutter like we’ve been hearing about, that changes everything for him.  I’m optimistic about Cole Hamels in 2010, but I wouldn’t bet my life on a return to his ‘08 form.  I would bet a significant sum of money on it though.

Joe Blanton is Joe Blanton and really that’s the best thing you can say about Joe Blanton.  I mean that in the nicest way possible.  I love Big Joe.  JA Happ was lucky in the same way that Cole Hamels was unlucky in 2009, but even if he regresses some, he should still be a solid 4th starter.  I’ll be interested to see how Happ pitches with nobody threatening to take his spot in the rotation away from him.  He seemed to pitch better last season when his job was being threatened.  Some guys just perform better with the Sword of Damocles dangling over their head, you know?

I think the 5th spot in the rotation shakes out something like this: If Jamie Moyer is able to pitch in spring training games without shitting his pants on the mound, he gets the gig.  In fact, I believe he will be permitted to shit his pants as many as three times before the Phillies consider giving the job to Kyle Kendrick.   I don’t there is any way Moyer gets released.  You could point to the fact that the Phillies ate a similar amount of money to release Adam Eaton and Geoff Jenkins last season, but Ruben Amaro didn’t sign those guys.  Ruben Amaro signed Moyer to his current terrible contract, and Amaro’s ego is massive.  I guess.  I don’t really know the guy.  He just seems like a prick.

By the way, I like Kyle Kendrick a lot.  I liked the way he looked when he was called up toward the end of last season, specifically because I liked that he came up with a change up.  I like that he has worked hard to diversify his pitch repertoire, and I like that he has been following Roy Halladay around like a puppy dog this spring.  I even like his feeble attempts to grow a beard.  I think he should be the 5th starter, but he will likely wait around in AAA until the inevitable Jamie Moyer blow out.

All things considered, assuming a return to form for Hamels and some regression from Happ, the Phillies should get a lot more out of their rotation in 2010.

Bullpen:

Brad Lidge, RHP

Ryan Madson, RHP

JC Romero, LHP

Danys Baez, RHP

Jose Contreras, RHP

Chad Durbin, RHP

Antonio Bastardo, LHP/Scott Mathieson, RHP/Sergio Escalona, LHP/David Herndon, RHP/Mike Zagurski, LHP

I like Ryan Madson and think he will have a solid 2010.  After that things get dicey.  Brad Lidge and JC Romero are dealing with injuries that might prevent them from starting the season on time.  A return to health should allow Lidge to perform at a level closer to his ‘08 form (though he’s not going to be perfect again) than his ‘09 form, but I am also convinced that Lidge is secretly a head case even though nobody wants to admit that.  Romero is not so secretly a head case, and while he has pitched very well when healthy since coming to Philadelphia, he has a track record of inconsistency over his career.  I’m not exactly sure what the appeal of Danys Baez is.  He’s been either hurt or mediocre since he saved 41 games for a bad Tampa team in 2005.  He hasn’t been a closer since.  Do the Phillies really think that he’s a good solution to close games if Lidge falters?  I don’t.  I’d probably rather trot Madson out there, even though he wasn’t that great in the 9th inning last season.  Jose Contreras was good as a reliever in limited innings with Colorado last season, but terrible as a starter in Chicago before that.  It is also possible that he is at least 50 years old.  Chad Durbin is Chad Durbin and I don’t mean that in the affectionate way that I mean it when I say it about Joe Blanton.  The Phillies will probably let the last spot in the bullpen go to one of the young guys, and that is where things get interesting.  Scott Mathieson will be fun to root for as he tries to make his way back from two Tommy John surgeries and all indications are that his stuff is just as good as it was before he hurt himself.  I like Antonio Bastardo a lot and would guess that he would be the favorite to break camp with the team mostly because the Phillies could use another lefty.  In all, the bullpen is full of question marks and could very well derail the team in 2010.

The Verdict:

Alright, here’s where the Cliff Lee thing bugs me.  I realize there has been a bit of a backlash amongst Phillies fans toward those who can’t seem to move on from Cliff Lee.  I’ve written about why I disagree with the trade ad nauseum, so I’ll be brief.  First, I don’t think the trade accomplished Ruben Amaro’s stated goals of replenishing the farm system and, to a lesser extent, keeping the team within a certain budget.  The second issue is more important to me.  Philosophically, I would rather have one great year than a bunch of very good ones.  Specifically, I would rather have a transcendent 2010 season watching perhaps one of the best rotations in the history of baseball, followed by a very good 2011 season (assuming the team can’t afford to sign Lee, most of the core would still be together) and let the chips fall where they may in 2012 and beyond.  I get that most people disagree with that.

The question is, will a very good but not great Phillies team be enough to win the World Series in 2010?  The lineup has improved.  The bench has improved.  The rotation has improved.  The bullpen has as good a chance of being terrible as it does of being reliable.  If Halladay/Lee/Hamels are your top 3 pitchers it almost doesn’t matter who is in the bullpen.  While a 1-2 punch of Halladay and Hamels is very good, the 1-2 punch of the teams they meet in the playoffs and World Series will likely be very good as well.

But moving on from Cliff Lee for a moment, here’s what I think: The Phillies are still the class of the National League.  Anything less than another pennant would be a disappointment.  After that, I’m not sure.  The Yankees got better.  The Red Sox got better.  The Phillies would have a difficult time with either of those teams.  The bullpen really scares me.  It could very well be worse than last year.  There are reasons for hope though.  Brad Lidge can’t be as bad as he was last season, and it is entirely possible that some of the younger guys could take advantage of the opportunity and become solid contributors.  The Phillies probably will be able to make an acquisition during the season if they feel they need it, even though the payroll is pretty well stretched.  There is every reason for Philly fans to be optimistic about another parade in 2010.  I just know that for me personally, if things don’t work out the way I hope, next winter (and a long time after that) will come with a lot of regrets.

While I was busy hyperventilating over the fact that I will not get to watch Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee pitch back to back games 30-something times atop the Phillies rotation in 2010 (Bring this up at your own peril around me.  I’m still a little sensitive.), Ruben Amaro and company were busy rounding out the roster by signing guys like Danys Baez and Jose Contreras.  Eventually, those guys (and other guys) reported to Clearwater to start stretching and doing push-ups and stuff, and here we are.  The Phillies weren’t quite good enough to beat the Yankees to win the World Series in 2009, so let’s take our best guess at what the 2010 roster will look like and try to figure out if they are parade-down-Broad-Street good.

Lineup:

Jimmy Rollins, SS

Placido Polanco, 3B

Chase Utley, 2B

Ryan Howard, 1B

Jayson Werth, RF

Raul Ibanez, LF

Shane Victorino, CF

Carlos Ruiz, C

Placido Polanco replaces Pedro Feliz at third base.  He’ll likely hit second in the order, and as a prototypical #2 hitter he should make the lineup better.  Polanco puts just about everything in play, and with his bat control and ability to hit with two strikes he ought to provide Jimmy Rollins with a few more chances to run.  Of course, Jimmy could provide himself with a few more chances to run if he would get on base at a better than .300 clip, something he failed to do last season.  To accommodate Polanco, Shane Victorino will move down in the lineup, likely hitting 7th.  I thought Shane improved quite a bit as a situational hitter in the 2 hole for the Phillies last year, but he wasn’t necessarily a natural there.  Hitting down in the order, we might see some more power from Victorino this season as he will likely be able to swing away more often.  While most people assume that Shane will hit 7th this season, I kind of like the idea of him hitting 6th in front of Raul Ibanez.  That way, Ibanez gets more at bats with speedy guys like Werth and Victorino on base, and Victorino’s running ability isn’t wasted as much as it would be if he were hitting in front of Ruiz and the pitcher.  In fact, if someone could pass that idea along to Charlie Manuel that would be cool.

Defensively, it remains to be seen if Polanco can adequately replace Feliz at third.  Feliz was one of the better third baseman in baseball, even if it looked to me that he lost about a half a step toward the end of last season.  Polanco hasn’t played 3rd on a regular basis since his last tour of duty in Philly, but he was a Gold Glove winner in Detroit last season and is about as sure handed as they come.  My guess is that the improvements he brings to the Phillies lineup will offset any drop off we see from Feliz to Polanco defensively.  And since every other regular returns, we should expect to see another solid defensive club for the Phillies in 2010.

Bench:

Brian Schneider, C

Ross Gload, 1B/OF

Greg Dobbs, 3B/1B/OF

Juan Castro, INF

Ben Francisco, OF

The Phillies made a concerted effort to improve their bench this winter and did a nice job accomplishing that.  Brian Schneider isn’t that far removed from being a solid starting catcher, though he has been derailed by injuries and the stink of Mets (almost certainly related) over the last two seasons.  He has a decent defensive reputation and should provide better offensive production than the backup combo of Paul Bako and Chris Coste last season.  Greg Dobbs struggled last season mostly due to a lack of regular at bats.  Juan Castro figures to be an upgrade over Eric Bruntlett, but that isn’t really saying anything.  Ross Gload is a solid, professional hitter and should be an upgrade on Matty Stairs, who clearly lost some bat speed last season.  Ben Francisco was a steal in the Cliff Lee trade and is one of the better 4th outfielders in the National League.  He has some holes in his swing, but he plays all 3 outfield positions reasonably well and has some decent pop in his bat.

The question, of course, is whether or not Charlie Manuel will actually use any of these guys on a regular basis.  Charlie has a tendency to over-rely on the guys he trusts, and as the current core of players ages it becomes increasingly important that guys like Utley, Rollins, and Ibanez are rested at times to keep them fresh down the stretch.  With good reason, Manuel may not have felt entirely comfortable with his reserves last season, but the bench has been upgraded in 2010.  It’s in the best interests of everyone involved if Charlie figures out a better way to use them.

Coming Tomorrow: Part 2, The Starters and Bullpen.

It doesn’t make sense for a lot of reasons, but I love Andy Kaufman.  In fact, I’m probably the biggest Andy Kaufman fan you know, because I am guessing you don’t know too many others.  It doesn’t make sense because most of Andy’s prime years came before I was born, so I had to experience him in retrospect.  Retrospect was a lot harder to do in the mid-90’s when I was first turned on to him.  It doesn’t make sense because there isn’t really a whole lot to like about Andy Kaufman.  He is probably most famous for the TV show Taxi, which was also probably his worst work.  He didn’t make a lot of movies, and the ones he did make don’t hold up.  He was a performance artist (he preferred “song and dance man”) above all else, but even that devolved into a bizarre foray into professional wrestling toward the end of his short life.  But for whatever reason, my pre-to-early teen self felt a connection with Mr. Kaufman.  I felt like I got him.  It doesn’t make sense, but it doesn’t change how I feel.

In 1999, director Milos Forman made a relatively well done film about Andy’s life called Man on the Moon starring Jim Carrey, which you probably saw and forgot about.  If my memory serves me, this movie came out around Christmas time, because every single one of my friends wanted to take me to see the movie as my Christmas gift.  To this day, I have never seen a movie in the theater more times than I saw Man on the Moon, and I didn’t pay to see it once.  In fact, I saw it 4 times before I saw it with my then-girlfriend.  I lied to her about this fact because she had planned to take me as part of a larger, more special gift and I felt that if she knew I had already seen the movie 4 times she might feel that the gift would be cheapened.  She was a really great girl and I liked her a lot.  Now, just about a decade later, we don’t speak and haven’t for several years.  I should have appreciated that time while I was experiencing it.  Such is life.

Anyway, there is a scene in the movie that kept playing over and over in my head when it looked more and more that my Philadelphia Phillies had a realistic chance of acquiring my favorite non-Phillie of my lifetime, Roy Halladay.  One line from this scene played over and over, louder and louder in my head when it became increasingly likely that said Halladay acquisition would require my Phillies to deal Cliff Lee, a stud pitcher of whom I am also very fond.  In the scene, Kaufman’s BFF Bob Zmuda (played by Paul Giamatti) takes Andy to a brothel to blow off some steam.  The working ladies line themselves up in front of Kaufman and Zmuda with the idea that Andy will pick the one he likes and go to town, so to speak.  Andy, feigning shyness around the ladies, sort of closes his eyes and points to two different women.  Zmuda tells Andy that he needs to pick one.  Andy replies, in a German accent for some reason, “I vill have zem bot!”

That is the line that repeats itself over and over in my head when I think about the trade(s) that bring us Roy Halladay and lose us Cliff Lee.  I don’t want to make up my mind.  “I will have them both!”

I’ve put off writing this for as long as I felt like I could.  It probably would be prudent to put it off for a little while longer.  I hoped to feel differently about this, and given time I still might.  But I’ve spent the better part of six months conjuring up scenarios that would bring Roy Halladay to the Phillies and now that this little dream of mine has come true, I never imagined I would feel so…disappointed.  Maybe disappointed isn’t the right word, but it’s the first word that comes to mind.  Perhaps nonplussed.  Ambivalent works too.  This is not how I thought I would feel at all.  This is not how I want to feel.

Don’t get me wrong, the trade works.  It makes the Phillies better in 2010 and gives them a shot to keep this World Series window open a year or two longer.  The Phillies aren’t the Yankees.  They have to work within a budget.  I understand that.  I understand that Cliff Lee wanted to become a free agent and sign as large a contract as the market would bear after the 2010 season.  It’s hard to blame a guy for that, especially since he’s been badly outperforming his current contract for the last two seasons and probably will in 2010.  I understand that it is a good idea to maintain a productive major league feeder system in the minor leagues, and trading Lee to Seattle replenishes what was lost to Toronto to acquire Roy Halladay to a certain extent.  I get it.  It’s prudent.  It makes sense.  And that’s probably why I hate it.

Well, hate isn’t the right word either, but as you can see I am still searching.  I LOVE Roy Halladay.  I am fired up to get him but I can’t help but feel like the Phillies missed a rare opportunity here.  Perhaps a once in a lifetime opportunity.  Some of you will agree with me on this and perhaps more of you won’t, but either way I don’t think I’ll be able to change your mind with what I have to say.  The reason is because I’m talking as much about a life philosophy as a baseball philosophy.  In life, as in baseball, you don’t get that many opportunities to be great.  Truly great.  Transcendent.  With this trade, the Phillies set themselves up to be very good for a long time.  That’s fine.  But if the Phillies had traded Roy Halladay and held on to Cliff Lee, fully acknowledging that they would not be able to sign him after this season, the team could have had transcendent greatness in 2010.  Instead, they will just be very good in 2010 and probably for the next 3-4 seasons going forward.  Aspiring to be great requires greater risk than simply being good, but the reward cannot be measured.  2010 could have been one of, if not the best year of our life as Phillies fans.  We could have watched one of the most dominant rotations of our lifetime in Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Who-cares-because-they-won’t-start-in-the-playoffs-anyway paired with one of the best offenses/defenses in baseball.

Instead, the Phillies will be one of the best teams in the National League.  More than likely they’ll make the playoffs and we’ll just have to hope for the best once they get there.  But hoping for the best didn’t work out so great last year in the World Series.  The Yankees were clearly better than the Phillies were and they will be again in 2010.  Now that the Red Sox have signed John Lackey, they are probably better than the Phillies too should they beat the Yankees and represent the AL in the ‘10 World Series.  Let me present you with this: If the Phillies had traded for Halladay instead of Lee at the ‘09 trading deadline, and we assume that Halladay takes Lee’s World Series starts, is the outcome any different?  I don’t see a way in which you can argue that it is.  Pitching wasn’t the only reason we didn’t beat the Yankees, but it didn’t help that we trotted out a clearly spent Pedro Martinez in game 6 either.  My point is that I felt the Phillies were an arm short last year and trading for Halladay and dealing away Lee doesn’t really solve that issue.

As I mentioned, I realize that there were practical issues that came with trading for Roy Halladay in terms of dollars and prospects.  But I don’t buy for a second that trading Cliff Lee was the only way to solve them.  It was the safest way, also probably the easiest, and while I learn that a lot of people disagree with me as I make my way through life, safe and easy decisions have a ceiling.  You get to be very good.  You get to keep your job.  Whatever.  I don’t care about any of that.

They way I see it, there were other ways the Phillies could have made this work.  First of all, they could have non-tendered Chad Durbin.  They’d save about $2 million right there.  I think they should have done that anyway, but that’s beside the point.  We’re hearing reports that the Phillies tried to shop Joe Blanton to no avail.  Bullshit.  Randy Wolf just signed for 3 years and around $30 million with the Milwaukee Brewers.  Are you telling me that there isn’t a team out there that would be willing to give up one decent prospect for 1 year and $6-7 million of Joe Blanton instead of throwing Randy Wolf money at Joel Piniero or Jason Marquis?  Really?  Even after Brad Penny, a health and attitude risk, signed for $7.5 million with incentives that could take him to $9 million in St. Louis?  And wouldn’t that prospect, along with the draft picks you got for allowing Cliff Lee to walk after the season, be just about the same thing you got when you traded Lee to Seattle?  Yes, the prospects would probably be a year or two further away, but the prospects the Phillies got from Seattle aren’t exactly knocking on the door either.  And if you really, truly couldn’t trade Blanton, wouldn’t Shane Victorino almost certainly bring a better prospect?  I’m baffled.  Ruben Amaro, Jr. missed one here.  I really believe that.

This thing is all so dissatisfying because I know that watching Roy Halladay for the next 4-5 years will be one of the great joys of my life.  But I won’t be able to do it without wondering what might have been.  As if I haven’t said enough already, let’s sort through some of the other issues of the trade, some good, some bad, bullet-point style:

• Cole Hamels has to return to his 2008 form now.  He absolutely has to.  I buy most if not not all of the reasons for his disappointing ‘09 season and have a lot of confidence that he will indeed bounce back.  But I don’t think that it’s the lock that everyone seems to be assuming it is.  Those among us with statistical analysis leanings (I am an appreciator and an admirer, but not a card-carrying member) point to several numbers, most notably an absurdly high BABIP that would make it seem that a lot of Hamels failures can be attributed to bad luck.  Again, I buy this for the most part.  I watched all of Hamels’ starts last year and what I saw was a guy who, yes, was mentally exhausted and blooped and bleed to death.  I also saw a guy who clearly needs to make an adjustment to a league that has adjusted to him.  Cole is a two-pitch pitcher and while his changeup is among the most dominant in the game, if he only has that and the fastball major league hitters can sit on one or the other and hit him.  That’s why I don’t think that 100% of Hamels’ failures last year can be written off as bad luck.  I don’t think baseball works that way over an entire season.  A lot of  “cheap” hits fell in against Cole because hitters took a good approach to him and fought him off.  The key to Hamels’ success in 2010 will be the development of a 3rd pitch, probably his curveball, to give hitters something else to think about at the plate.  I think it’s an adjustment he will make, but I wouldn’t bet my life on it.
• If we’re going to attribute Hamels’ season to bad luck, the same statistical measures would have you believe that JA Happ had a lot of good luck in 2009.  I think we can expect some sort of regression for Happ in 2010, which puts our rotation in a similar place.  So, in my opinion, still not good enough.
• I don’t know a whole lot about the prospects coming our way from Seattle, but the consensus among people who do seems to be that they are not as good as the ones we sent to Toronto.  That’s to be expected.  I have no problem with acquiring two pitchers as you can never, ever have enough pitching.  I do wonder about the outfield prospect, Tyson Gillies, not because he isn’t good, but because even after dealing Mike Taylor to Toronto (who will ship him to Oakland, by the way), the Phillies system still has a ton of outfield depth.  Gillies is a speed guy and we already have two of those in Anthony Gose and Quintin Berry.  An infielder or catcher seems like a better move here, especially because it doesn’t appear that Gillies is a blue-chipper.
• Roy Halladay’s extention at 3 years and $60 million, is fantastic mostly because of the years.  They money is slightly below market value as well, but not having to pay $20 million for a 37 or 38 year old pitcher (there is a vesting option for a 4th year) is great.
• Ruben Amaro should get ripped for giving Jamie Moyer a 2 year deal before the ‘09 season as much or more than he should be praised for any of the other good moves he has made.  I had no problem with the money Moyer earned last season as a thank you for ‘08.  He could have earned more for all I care.  But two guaranteed years for a 46 year old pitcher is stupid.  Was Moyer really getting 2 years from anyone else?  Do you think the Phillies could use an extra $8 million right now?

I’m sure I’m forgetting things, but I think I’ve said just about all I have to say about this right now.  Come opening day, I imagine I will be 100% on board and the biggest Roy Halladay fan on the planet.  But for right now, I’m just…I don’t know.  I still can’t find the right word.

I’m pretty sure that when William Shakespeare wrote that thing about the significance of the tales full of sound and fury he was talking about baseball’s winter meetings.  Lots of talk and not a whole lot of action.  But that’s fun, because when there isn’t any baseball on TV there isn’t a whole lot left to do but…talk.  So talk we shall.  Perhaps spread a rumor or two.  See where the day takes us.

One thing that isn’t talk is that since the last time I checked in, the Phillies filled out their lineup and bench with moves that aren’t spectacular but definitely improve the team.  Brian Schneider was signed to be the backup catcher, which was a great move.  Schneider is an above average defender and can be just as good with the bat as Carlos Ruiz, assuming Chooch’s late season tear was just a hot streak and not a sign that he’s turned the corner as a hitter.  Schneider is also a lefty and if he is able to stay healthy (a problem for him last year) and produce we could see something close to a platoon situation with Ruiz, probably for the benefit of all involved.  The Phillies also signed lefty Ross Gload to round out their bench.  Gload can play first base and the corner outfield positions, and should be an offensive upgrade on the man he replaces, Matt Stairs.

In addition to the bench upgrades, the Phillies signed Placido Polanco to be their everyday third baseman.  Polanco was signed to a 3 year, $18 million dollar contract which seems to be a year too long for a 34 year old whose numbers are on the decline.  It’s also worth noting that Polanco has not played 3B regularly since 2005, though that doesn’t necessarily concern me.  He is a slap hitter who puts just about everything in play and does very little walking or striking out.  The talk is that Polanco will hit second in the lineup, which makes sense, and Shane Victorino will slide down.  If that is the case, the Phillies’ lineup and bench will look something like this:

1. Jimmy Rollins, SS
2. Placido Polanco, 3B
3. Chase Utley, 2B
4. Ryan Howard, 1B
5. Jayson Werth, RF
6. Raul Ibanez, LF
7. Shane Victorino, CF
8. Carlos Ruiz, C
9. Pitcher

With Brian Schneider (L), Juan Castro (R), Greg Dobbs (L), Ross Gload (L), and Ben Francisco (R) off the bench.  That looks a little bit better than what the Phillies trotted out in 2009.  The one thing that intrigues me a little bit with that lineup is Victorino hitting in the 7-hole.  I thought he did a respectable job hitting situationally out of the second spot last year.  This year he ought to have more opportunities to drive in runs, and if there doesn’t happen to be anyone on base ahead of him he’ll be able to run a little more freely with the catcher coming up.  But it doesn’t feel like a great fit down there with Shane.  He feels, well, expendable.  I’ll get to why in a minute.  (Quick aside: Whether or not Victorino is a better leadoff hitter than Jimmy Rollins is a legitimate discussion, but I am not addressing it because I don’t think that there is any way Charlie Manuel removes Jimmy from the leadoff spot.  We know Charlie well enough to know that he’s stubborn about this sort of thing.)

Now that the offensive side of things is taken care of, the Phillies are turning their attention to the pitching.  Specifically it looks like the Phillies are trying to find themselves a back-of-the-bullpen arm, which makes sense.  Of the ones that are still available I probably like Mike Gonzalez best, but you know what I would like more?  Not giving a multi-year contract to a reliever.  Any reliever.  Unless the pitcher is Mariano Rivera (and really, he’s the only one) it makes almost no sense to to give significant money and more than one year to a relief pitcher, especially one who isn’t a closer.  Even Francisco Rodriguez, one of the best closers in the game, signed for big money with the Mets and was mostly a disaster in the second half last year.  Do I have to bring up Brad Lidge?  JC Romero anyone?  I like Ryan Madson, but would you bet your life that he performs consistently this season?  That’s the thing about bullpens, you never really know what you’ll get from year to year.  Pitchers become relievers for a reason: they are somehow flawed.  Maybe they just have one good pitch.  Maybe their stuff is below average.  Maybe their stuff is good, but doesn’t hold up for more than an inning or two at a time.  Look at Chan Ho Park.  His stuff is really good, but only for one or two innings.  Anyway, rather than throwing a bunch of money at a guy like Fernando Rodney, the better approach might be to let the market play out and let veterans with something to prove come in on one-year, incentive laden contracts.  If they work out, great.  If not we can find another guy who will.  It looks like this might be the approach that the Phillies are taking, after seeing guys like Brandon Lyon and LaTroy Hawkins sign contracts they almost certainly won’t justify.  If a bigger, more dynamic arm is needed, one can probably be acquired during the season.  But you know what is a better approach to building a bullpen?  Trade for Roy Halladay.

I know, I know.  It’s a pipe dream.  But is it?  And no, I’m not saying get Halladay and put him in the bullpen.  I’m saying that starting pitching covers a multitude of deficiencies and that if your top 3 are Halladay/Lee/Hamels, it almost doesn’t matter who is in the bullpen.  Most of those guys won’t be used anyway.  Not in situations that matter.  I realize that we’ve been through this before and that some of you might be sick of the hype, but if you are I don’t know what to tell you.  This is Roy Freaking Hallady.  Roy Halladay!  And if you liked that parade we had in 2008 and think you might like to do that again sometime, Roy Halladay is our best chance to make that happen.

There are drawbacks.  The cost would be prohibitive in terms of prospects and dollars.  Halladay is a free agent after the season is over.  But there are also things working the Philadelphia’s favor.  Halladay wants to go there.  In fact, it might be on the top of his list.  Halladay has a no-trade clause which, combined with the fact that Toronto cannot afford to keep him, means that the Jays have very little leverage and are forced to make a deal or risk losing him for a pair of draft picks after the 2010 season.  There are a limited number of teams that can both afford him and have the talent to acquire him, and right now it looks like there are three other clubs who pull it off.  The Yankees and Red Sox are lurking on the periphery and if they wanted him they could probably top whatever the Phillies could offer.  But right now both clubs seem to have other priorities.  The Angels are the other team in the hunt, but they do not appear to be as good a fit for Halladay as Philly would be.

Anaheim (or Los Angles or whatever) has reportedly offered Joe Saunders, Erick Aybar, and prospect Peter Bourjos, an offer that the Phillies could probably top.  Ruben Amaro has steadfastly refused to give up top prospects Kyle Drabek and Domonic Brown, somewhat understandably.  It is also a possibility that the Phillies would have to cut payroll in order to fit Halladay into their budget, and since it’s not my money to spend I’ll take their word for it on that.  Joe Blanton seems like the most likely candidate to be moved if the need should arise, which wouldn’t leave a whole lot left for the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation.  Again, with Halladay around that would matter a lot less.  But Blanton is a pretty good pitcher in his own right, and if he is your 4th starter you are in pretty good shape.

So if payroll needs to be cut either way, and you don’t want to deal your top prospects, what can you do?  Can you trade from the major league roster?  I guess what I’m asking is, would the Blue Jays have any interest in Shane Victorino?  Shane is under team control for two more years and eligible for arbitration.  His salary would be more than a rebuilding team might want to pay, but if you look at their roster, Toronto is not completely rebuilding.  They have Vernon Wells’ nearly unmovable contract on the books through 2014 (!) and a group of young veterans like Aaron Hill and Edwin Encarnacion with whom Victorino might fit in well.  He fills more of a need than Erick Aybar (though it’s not the Angels fault that Toronto signed Alex Gonzalez to play shortstop for some reason) as Shane could play rightfield alongside Wells.  Even if the Jays aren’t interested in Victorino somebody would be, and perhaps a three-team deal could be worked out with prospects going to Toronto.  Victorino doesn’t quite fit the Phillies lineup anymore and with two years left before he becomes a free agent, his value is as high as it will get.  If Michael Taylor isn’t ready yet he will be shortly, and a combination of Ben Francisco, Ross Gload, DeWayne Wise, John Mayberry and even Greg Dobbs could man the vacant outfield spot (with Werth moving to center where applicable) until he is.  The Phillies would suffer a bit defensively (unless Wise was in center, then they’d suffer offensively), but again, Roy Halladay would be on the mound every 5 days.  Roy Halladay.

Obviously Victorino alone isn’t going to get the deal done, so there will have to be others involved.  JA Happ would almost certainly be involved and a look at his numbers suggests that he would be a better piece for the Blue Jays than Joe Saunders.  His ERA, WHIP, K/9, K/BB, and BB/9 were all better than Saunders’ in 2009.  Happ also has less service time, which would mean he is under team control for longer.  Essentially, by just about every measure Happ would be a better fit for Toronto than Saunders.

But Victorino and Happ wouldn’t get it done either.  This is where I would make something of a concession.  I would trade Domonic Brown.  Yes, every indication is that he will be a stud.  But the Phillies have more organizational depth in the outfield than anywhere else.  It would be a loss.  The team might have to come up with some short-term solutions when Werth becomes a free agent after ‘10 and Raul Ibanez follows a year later.  Anthony Gose will be on the way eventually, though that is beside the point.  The Phillies have a World Series window that they need to take advantage of now.  Roy Halladay gives them their best chance to do that.

Shane Victorino (or prospect(s) from a 3rd team), JA Happ, Domonic Brown, and give them another (non-Drabek) pitching prospect.  I’m not privy to the discussions that Ruben Amaro is having with Alex Anthropolus, but that seems like a fair offer.  If you disagree, my question to you would be this: what else is Toronto really going to get?  Like I said before, the Yankees and Red Sox could probably beat it, but is either team so inclined?  The Jays are running low on options.  In the meantime, the Phillies keep Drabek and Taylor and end up with a Lee/Halladay/Hamels/Blanton/Kendrick or Moyer rotation with Drabek possibly on the way in July or August.  If Taylor isn’t ready out of spring training, the Phillies could certainly replace most of his production by juggling the players mentioned above.

One final note on contracts.  Halladay and Cliff Lee would both be free agents after the 2010 season.  There is almost no way the Phillies could afford them both.  That’s fine.  What’s the rush?  Both guys are ultra competitive and winning is their top priority.  Neither is a sulker or a headcase.  Let them sort it out during the season.  They’ll both pitch their asses off going for a ring and a monster contract.  After the season is over, the Phillies can pick the one they want to sign.  They could even play them off of each other to get the best deal.  I fail to see a down side here.

All I’m saying it that if the Phillies are serious about getting back to the World Series and beating a team like the Yankees, Roy Halladay is the best way to do it.  It’s going to hurt to say goodbye to certain players.  But we won’t be thinking about them a whole lot when we cram 2 million people into Philadelphia again to celebrate our second championship in three years.

You can find Part 1 on the lineup and bench here.

Rotation

Who’s back in 2010? In the easiest decision any GM will have to make this winter, Ruben Amaro exercised the 2010 option on Cliff Lee.  Cole Hamels.  Joe Blanton (arbitration eligible). JA Happ.  Kyle Kendrick is around if the Phillies feel like using him.

Who’s up in the air? Pedro Martinez.  Jamie Moyer is under contract, but had surgery on his groin and abdominal muscle.  He’ll be 47.  He was removed from the rotation before he got hurt.  I’ll let you do the math on that one.

Things to consider: Cole Hamels had a disappointing year in 2010.  I think a winter spent keeping a low profile (and maybe working on his curveball) will be good for his mental health, and the time off will be good for his arm as well after a huge jump in innings pitched from 2007 to 2008.  His luck will improve.  I wonder about his ceiling going forward, but I think that his return to something resembling his ‘08 form is extremely important for the Phillies to have success in ‘10.  I would not trade Cole Hamels, not even for Roy Halladay.  I don’t think.  Actually, let me think about that one and get back to you.  But with that being said, I would love for the Phillies to trade for Roy Halladay.  Or sign John Lackey.  An ace like one of those guys might seem unnecessary to those who feel that the Phillies biggest problems lie elsewhere, but assuming resources (in terms of prospects and money) are limited, I would rather the team acquire another big time starter to pair with Cliff Lee and spend less on other needs such as 3rd base and the bullpen.  I feel very confident that the Phillies can win the NL East again in 2010 by maintaining something close to the status quo, but come playoff time a top 3 of Lee, Halladay or Lackey, and a hopefully improved Cole Hamels would be better than anything Chone Figgins, Jose Valverde, or whomever would contribute.  It would also be a better top 3 than any other playoff team could likely throw out there and would put the Phillies in prime position to win 2 World Series titles in 3 years.

Of course, you can’t just go out and sign up a guy like Halladay or Lackey and call it a day.  There is a price to pay.  For Halladay, the cost would be in prospects.  For Lackey it would be in the form of a long-term, big money contract.  Sacrifices would likely have to be made on either front.  If the Phillies decide to go after Lackey, they may need to either trade or decline to offer arbitration to Joe Blanton.  Joe Blanton was one of my favorite Phillies in 2009, but if that’s what needs to be done to pay a guy like Lackey, I would support that.  If they decide they’d rather trade for Roy Halladay, they may run into some of the same issues they faced in July in terms of the Toronto asking price and which players the Phillies consider “untouchable”.  If the price is slightly less than it was in July (because the Blue Jays presumably have a smarter GM running things and Halladay is a half-year closer to free agency), Halladay may be the better option for the Phillies.  If the Jays are willing to take a package lead by JA Happ and Michael Taylor or Domonic Brown, then Philly should jump all over that.  If Toronto insists on Kyle Drabek again, odds are a deal won’t happen.

If the Phillies ultimately decide that Lackey and Halladay are not worth the price, heading into 2010 with a Lee/Hamels/Blanton/Happ rotation is not a bad option.  Like they have for the last several years, the Phillies could always decide to acquire another starter in July if they feel they need one.  There are many candidates for the 5th starter spot, including Kyle Kendrick, Kyle Drabek, Jamie Moyer, and perhaps even Pedro Martinez if he decides he wants to pitch another season.  It seems like the best move would be to let one of those guys earn the spot and get another arm in July if needed rather than spend money on a veteran starter over the winter.  If the Phillies acquire another starter, it should be an ace.

Bullpen

Who’s back in 2010? Brad Lidge.  Ryan Madson.  JC Romero.

Who’s up in the air? Brett Myers has been informed that he will not be offered a contract for 2010.  Chan Ho Park is a free agent.  So is Scott Eyre.  Clay Condrey, Chad Durbin, and Tyler Walker are arbitration eligible.

Things to consider: Bullpens are notoriously inconsistent from year to year.  Given that the Phillies relievers had a mostly down year last year, some turnover is probably in order.  Scott Eyre is having surgery.  If he makes it through that alright, he is worth bringing back.  If Chan Ho Park is willing to return for similar money and in a similar role, that would be worth it as well.  He may want another shot at starting, or a team might offer him a chance to close.

The big issue, however, is Brad Lidge.  The Phillies are paying him $12 million for each of the next 2 seasons, so no matter how he performs the team is probably stuck with him.  You’d have to imagine that Charlie Manuel will give him every opportunity to be the closer in ‘10.  It’s not unreasonable that Lidge would regain something close to his ‘08 form in ‘10, as it appears that injuries hampered him throughout the season.  However, it is important that the Phillies acquire somebody with closer experience should Lidge falter again.  That may be difficult because a guy who can close would probably prefer to go to a team where he can actually be the closer.  It’s interesting that the Phillies did not even consider bringing back Brett Myers, as he could have been a guy with the potential to close if Lidge faltered.  He may not have wanted a set-up/middle relief role in the meantime, though.  Octavio Dotel, Mike Gonzalez, JJ Putz (if healthy and the Mets stink is off him), Takashi Saito, and Rafael Soriano are all free agents who could be relatively cost-effective and help out the Phillies in 2010.

I find I deal with things that would otherwise make me unhappy by just not dealing with them.  Perhaps that is a bad idea, but it seems to be be working out alright so far.  As it is, you’ll notice that I haven’t written anything about game 6 of the World Series or attempted to contextualize the 2009 Philadelphia Phillies in any way.  I’m not ready.  It doesn’t mean that I won’t be at some point, but I’m not ready now.  Ready or not, time marches on and despite my lack of closure with the ‘09 Phillies preparations for 2010 are already underway.  The vast majority of the ‘09 team will be back and primed to make another title run, so there are reasons for optimism.  A few decisions have already been made, and I lack a lot of definite opinions about what should and should not be done a this point, but I do have a few ideas.  Some will seem crazy or stupid and others might seem obvious, but frankly I’m not ready to deal with the off-season yet either, so I reserve the right to change my opinions as the winter unfolds.  But as the GM meetings begin today in Chicago, here is an overview of what the Phillies will be dealing with before pitchers and catchers report.

INFIELD

Who’s back in 2010? Ryan Howard.  Chase Utley.  Jimmy Rollins.  Carlos Ruiz.

Who’s up in the air? Pedro Feliz’s $5.5 million dollar option has already been declined (The Phillies will pay a $500,000 buy-out).

Things to consider: The Phillies have said that the lines of communication are still open with Feliz and that they could consider bringing him back if some of their other options dry up.  Chone Figgins is name that is bandied about by Phillies fans and writers as a possible replacement, but I think I would prefer to see the team sign Adrian Beltre or Mark DeRosa.  Beltre is an as good or better fielder than Feliz, and would theoretically provide an upgrade offensively though he struggled with injuries in 2009.  I like DeRosa for his versatility and his ability to spell Chase Utley at 2B from time to time.  To me, Figgins is a little over-rated defensively and would probably cost quite a bit more and over a longer term than the other options.  He would be a very good leadoff hitter and given the way that Jimmy Rollins struggled to get on base last season it would be worth considering.  But I don’t think that Charlie Manuel would move Jimmy out of the leadoff spot (At least not right away.  See also: Brad Lidge, closer) and if the Phillies were willing to pay Figgins the type of money it would take to land him, I would almost prefer that they spent that money to upgrade elsewhere.  Troy Glaus is a low-cost alternative that intrigues me, but he wasn’t healthy for most of ‘09.

OUTFIELD

Who’s back in 2010? Jayson Werth.  Shane Victorino (arbitration eligible).  Raul Ibanez.  So, everybody.

Who’s up in the air? Considering that the Phillies will almost certainly offer Victorino arbitration, nobody.

Things to consider: I’ve written this before out of spite, but I offer this suggestion now somewhat seriously:  The Phillies should think about trading Jayson Werth.  Werth will make $7.5 million in 2010, coming off of a career year at age 30.  His value will probably never be higher.  Two of the top 3 prospects in the Phillies organization are outfielders, and Michael Taylor very well could be ready to contribute in the big leagues this season.  The Phillies do not have a whole lot of infield prospects in their organization and Rollins/Utley/Howard won’t be in their primes forever.  You can never have enough pitching on the farm.  Werth will be a free agent after 2010, and signing him to a long-term deal seems unwise with Taylor and Domonic Brown waiting in the wings.  Werth could be a good alternative for teams who lose out on or feel they can’t afford Jason Bay and Matt Holiday.  If the Phillies think that their 3B upgrade (say, Beltre) and Michael Taylor could replace the production of Werth/Feliz in 2010 and they could get 2-3 decent prospects for Werth (or even 1-2 very good ones) then I think that it is an option Ruben Amaro should explore.

BENCH

Who’s back in 2010? Greg Dobbs.  Ben Francisco.

Who’s up in the air? Paul Bako.  Matt Stairs.  Eric Bruntlett is eligible for arbitration, but I just can’t see the Phillies offering it.  Miguel Cairo.

Things to consider: The bench is in desperate need of an upgrade for 2010.  The Phillies need to be able to rest their regulars more often during the season as they age.  The chicken or the egg question is this: Does Charlie Manuel over-rely on guys like Chase Utley to the point that they wear down late in the season because he does not trust his bench, or is his bench untrustworthy because Charlie rides guys like Utley into the ground?  Greg Dobbs clearly suffered this season from a lack of regular at bats (though he wasn’t helped by a late season calf injury), and the same case could be made for Stairs and Bruntlett.  It will be difficult for the Phillies to convince a lot of free agents that they will have enough at-bats to offer, but it is something they need to do.  They need an infielder to spell Jimmy and Chase and perhaps a 1B/OF type with a little pop to spell Howard at times and be a long-ball threat off the bench.  I don’t know if John Mayberry can play first base, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea for him to learn to improve his chances of sticking in the big leagues.  There are things to like about Mayberry, though his swing is too long.  I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing Stairs back on a minor league contract in case of an injury.  I also don’t mind Paul Bako as a backup catcher, especially if Chooch can hit the way he did toward the end of 2009.  But the Phillies do need to replenish the organizational depth at that position as well.

Coming soon, Part 2: Pitching…