You can see my American League preview here.  To review, teams are listed in my predicted order of finish, with my over or under on total wins (according to Bodog) and a few thoughts.

NL East

Philadelphia Phillies

Wins O/U: 92.5- Over

The pitching depth, both in the bullpen and the rotation, could be a big problem.  However, that will be mitigated by a full season of Roy Halladay (as opposed to two months of Cliff Lee).  The lineup is the best in the National League and probably the best one they’ve had in their recent run of 3 consecutive NL East crowns.  Joe Blanton, Brad Lidge, and JC Romero will all begin the season on the DL, but should all be back by early to mid May.  If the team can hold down the fort early in the season and avoid major injuries, they shouldn’t have too many problems winning their 4th division consecutive division title.

Florida Marlins

Wins O/U: 80.5- Over

The bullpen is a mess, but if they can find a few reliable guys out there the Marlins could seriously challenge for a playoff spot.  Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, and Anibal Sanchez form a solid top 3 in the rotation.  If Hanley Ramirez played in from of more than 500 fans on a nightly basis he would be one of the biggest stars in baseball.  He could very well win the NL MVP if the Marlins have a good season.  Chris Coghlin, Jorge Cantu, Dan Uggla, and Cody Ross are all solid hitters who put together good at bats.  With a few breaks, this could be a playoff team.

Atlanta Braves

Wins O/U: 85.5- Under

I don’t buy into all the Braves hype going into this season.  Call me crazy, but I don’t see how trading your best pitcher is a good idea.  Derek Lowe will be 37, Jair Jurrjens pitched over his head last year, and if you want to pin your playoff hopes on Tim Hudson and Kenshin Kawakami, be my guest.  Tommy Hanson has great stuff, but it will be interesting to see how he holds up over a full season and after the league has had a good look at him.  Chipper Jones will be 38 in April.  Brian McCann is good, but beyond that the lineup isn’t particularly impressive.

New York Mets

Wins O/U: 81.5- Under

It’s easy to pile on the Mets, but with all the money they have they can’t underachieve forever, can they?  They do have good players, but probably just not enough of them- especially on the pitching staff.  Unless the non-Santana starters improve greatly on their ‘09 performances, the rotation is a mess.  K-Rod struggled in the 2nd half last season, and there are question marks in the bullpen beyond that.  The dimensions of Citi Field sapped the power of many of their regulars (especially David Wright), and it they might need to reinvent themselves as a pitching/defense team.  They aren’t that this year.

Washington Nationals

Wins O/U: 70.5- Under

The Nationals appear to be a team that is a year away from respectability.  Perhaps depending on when Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen arrive only a half a year.  They’ve got a lot of good young pitching that should push them toward respectability in the near future.  Ryan Zimmerman is a star on the rise and Adam Dunn has as much power as anybody in baseball, but beyond that there isn’t much in the way of offense.  Ian Desmond is a young player worth watching.

NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals

Wins O/U: 88.5- Over

The Central is pretty wide open, but the Cardinals should be considered the favorite.  With Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday in the heart of the order they will score some runs, and with Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright at the top of the rotation they shouldn’t give up a whole lot.  The rest of the rotation should be pretty good and the bullpen should be reliable even if Ryan Franklin falls back to earth.  A major injury could derail the Cardinals, but if they stay healthy they should be a playoff team.

Milwaukee Brewers

Wins O/U: 80.5- Over

They will hit.  They will score runs.  The big question is with the pitching.  If Yovani Gallardo can pitch like a number one starter, the rotation will be respectable.  Randy Wolf and Doug Davis are innings-eater types who can keep lineups like Milwaukee’s in games.  If they can get anything at all from Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan, they could contend for a playoff spot.  The bullpen should be pretty good and the Brewers could exceed some expectations in 2010.

Chicago Cubs

Wins O/U: 83.5- Over

The Cubs are another team that could contend in the Central if things break right for them.  The rotation can be good if everyone stays healthy and Carlos Zambrano avoids a major meltdown.  Carlos Marmol has great stuff and inherits the closer role on a full-time basis in 2010.  They should score some runs if Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez can stay healthy.

Houston Astros

Wins O/U: 74.5- Over

Health is an issue already this spring, but if they can get that sorted out they are a team that could exceed expectations.  Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, and Brett Myers are a pretty good top 3, and the bullpen has a few decent arms.  Berkman/Lee/Pence is a good 3-4-5 in the lineup, and Michael Bourn might be the fastest man in baseball at the top.  If the Cardinals underachieve or get hurt and Milwaukee and Chicago turn out to be nothing special, it isn’t out of the question that the Astros could steal the Central in 2010.

Cincinnati Reds

Wins O/U: 79.5- Under

I know the Reds have as much young talent as any team in the division, but I’ve been burned too many times to count on them to do anything important this season.  Not having Edinson Volquez in the rotation this year hurts, but the pitching staff should still be decent.  Aroldis Chapman is going to begin the season in the minors, but he will be interesting to watch when he is called up.  There is young talent in the lineup in Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Drew Stubbs.  I’ve always liked Aaron Harang, but he’s dealt with some injuries over the last two seasons.  They are another team that could contend if things fall into place, but given how they’ve underachieved in the Dusty Baker era I wouldn’t count on it.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Wins O/U: 69.5- Under

The Pirates are the one team in the Central that can’t contend even if everyone meets expectations.  Andrew McCutchen, Garrett Jones, Ryan Doumit, and Lastings Milledge are talented young players who form an exciting middle of the order for Pirates fans to watch.  There isn’t a whole lot to get excited about on the pitching staff, but it at least appears that the front office is moving the team in the right direction for the first time in a long time.  They will win again at some point, it just won’t be this year.

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers

Wins O/U: 84.5- Over

A lot of people seem to be counting out the Dodgers this season because the McCourts are involved in a messy divorce and the team didn’t spend much money this offseason.  While they didn’t add anybody, they didn’t lose anybody either and this was a team that won 95 games last year.  Manny Ramirez is in a contract year and the lineup is full of dynamic hitters who can beat you in a lot of ways.  If Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsly pitch well at the top of the rotation, they should be in decent shape there and the bullpen is still very good.  The NL West will be tight this year, but the Dodgers should still be considered the frontrunner.

Colorado Rockies

Wins O/U: 84.5- Over

The Rockies are somewhat of a trendy pick to come out of the National League this season, and it’s hard to argue with that seeing as they are bringing just about everybody back from a young and talented team that won 92 games last season.  However, while many are predicting that Ubaldo Jimenez will make the leap to Cy Young contender this season, the rest of the pitching staff isn’t all that impressive.  Aaron Cook is a solid starter, but they are also relying on Jeff Francis to return to form after missing all of 2009.  There are question marks in the bullpen as well.  The lineup is deep and balanced, and Troy Tulowitzki is a legitimate star.  The Rockies will contend for a playoff spot in a tougher than expected NL West.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Wins O/U: 82.5- Over

If they can get anything at all out of Brandon Webb this year, the Diamondbacks could make the playoffs.  Of course that is a big “if”.  Even without Webb, Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson form a solid 1-2 at the top of the rotation.  I especially like Jackson moving to the NL.  However, the pitching staff drops off quite a bit from there.  I think the lineup is every bit as good as the Rockies’, especially if Justin Upton takes another step forward this year.  They’ve got some legitimate power threats in Adam LaRoche (not until the 2nd half, of course) and Mark Reynolds.

San Francisco Giants

Wins O/U: 82.5- Under

It’s tough to pick a team with Tim Lincecum at the top of the rotation to finish 4th in their division, but unless he starts hitting too I still see the Giants falling short of the playoffs this season.  It would have been one thing if the Giants has realized that they play in a huge ballpark and decided to do the pitching/defense thing that the Mariners did, but it doesn’t appear they’ve made the effort to assemble a top notch defensive team.  The pitching, of course, will be very good, and Kung Fu Panda is always fun to watch, but unless San Francisco figures out a way to score some more runs they will be on the outside looking in once the playoffs roll around.

San Diego Padres

Wins O/U:71.5- Under

It could be a really long year in San Diego, especially if the front office decides they should try to get as much as they can for Adrian Gonzalez at the trade deadline (and they probably should).  The rotation will struggle after they dealt Jake Peavy last July, but there are a few interesting arms on the staff.  Beyond Gonzalez, there isn’t much in the way of offense either, but young outfielder Kyle Blanks is someone worth watching.  The good news: At least the weather will be nice all year.

We’re just a day away from a baseball game that actually counts for something (Yankees at Red Sox, 8 pm on ESPN2), so I thought I’d touch base with the non-Phillies baseball world and give you a few thoughts on each team along with the over/under on total wins (according to Bodog.com).  In predicted order of regular season finish:

AL East

Boston Red Sox

Wins O/U: 94.5- Over

Beckett/Lester/Lackey is the best top 3 in baseball and Clay Buchholz is a hell of a 5th starter.  They’ve got a bunch of power arms in the bullpen.  The Sox made it an offseason priority to upgrade their defense with the additions of Mike Cameron (moving Jacoby Ellsbury to left), Adrian Beltre, and Marco Scutaro.  Boston has all the makings of a team built to win 100 games in the regular season with their pitching, defense, and a lineup that will work counts and wear opposing pitchers down.

New York Yankees

Wins O/U: 95.5- Under

Really tough call on the wins O/U considering that this was a team that won 103 games and the World Series in 2009.  Here’s the thing: Beyond CC Sabathia, who in that rotation do you trust?  37-year-old Andy Pettitte? AJ Burnett?  Javy Vazquez returning to the American League?  Mariano Rivera is 40 years old.  How many seasons does he have left before he starts to pitch his age?  They are definitely going to hit, and I like the Nick Johnson signing a lot provided he is healthy enough to stay on the field for 140+ games, something he’s only done once in his career.  Of course, they are the Yankees, and if they need something come July they’ll be able to go out and get it.  I still see them making the playoff and very possibly the World Series again.  They just may not win the division.

Tampa Bay Rays

Wins O/U: 89.5- Over

The Rays could win 90 games and still not make the playoffs in 2010.  In fact, that’s exactly what I suspect will happen.  Tampa Bay has just as much talent and the Red Sox and Yankees, they just have less margin for error.  If one or two of their regulars have a down season (a la BJ Upton and Pat Burrell in ‘09) or the young pitching doesn’t come through like they hope it will, there probably isn’t enough left to keep up with Boston and New York.  Then again, if they stay healthy and everything falls in place they could win the World Series.  It should be an interesting season in Tampa.  Too bad nobody will be watching.  I mean in Tampa.  Real baseball fans from other parts of the country will be.

Baltimore Orioles

Wins O/U: 74.5- Over

The Orioles are probably 2 years away from making any serious noise in the AL East, but there is a lot look forward to in Balitmore this season for the first time in a long time.  There are some great young pitchers in Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, and Chris Tillman and emerging stars in the lineup in Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters.  The Birds will put some runs on the board and cause some problems for the division’s big boys, but ultimately they will be doing well for themselves if they can finish .500.

Toronto Blue Jays

Wins O/U: 70.5- Under

The Jays traded Roy Halladay to Philadelphia in the offseason and with him their hopes of contending in 2010.  Somebody’s going to have to lose games in this division, and my guess is that Toronto will take more than their share of lumps this season.  Adam Lind emerged as a star in 2009 and there are a few intriguing young pitchers to watch, but this is a team that is rebuilding.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox

Wins O/U: 82.5- Over

The AL Central should be fairly wide open this season and in a scenario like that, I like the team with the most pitching.  Buehrle/Peavy/Danks/Floyd should be the best rotation in the division and there are enough arms in the bullpen depending on how high you are on Bobby Jenks.  Offensively they’ll be relying on question marks like Alex Rios and Mark Teahen, and they’ll need Gordon Beckham to be as good as everybody thinks he can be, but in a division with no clearly dominant team, the White Sox might just be the best bet.

Detroit Tigers

Wins O/U: 80.5- Over

The Tigers had to cut some payroll in the offseason (Curtis Granderson, Edwin Jackson), but added enough pieces back to contend for the AL Central in ‘10.  Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello are a good 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, and if they get bounce backs or breakthroughs from Max Scherzer, Dontrelle Willis, and/or Jeremy Bonderman, they could be in really good shape.  The lineup isn’t terribly deep, but with Johnny Damon at the top and Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez in the middle they should be fairly solid.

Minnesota Twins

Wins O/U: 84.5- Under

There’s a lot of hype surrounding the Twins this season what with the obscene (though necessary) amount of money they just gave Joe Mauer and the new ballpark they are opening.  I actually think that they will regret moving from the Metrodome as they lose a unique home field advantage.  Unless Francisco Liriano returns to form, the staff lacks an ace (Carl Pavano anyone?) and while the bullpen still ought to be very good, the loss of Joe Nathan hurts a lot.  The lineup is solid but not spectacular, though it has the potential to go pretty deep if Delmon Young finally lives up to his hype and/or JJ Hardy remembers how to hit.

Cleveland Indians

Wins O/U: 74.5- Over

In a division without a clear alpha-dog, Cleveland could surprise a some people if everything falls into place.  They’d need bounce backs from Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, Jake Westbrook, and Fausto Carmona and breakthroughs from Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Justin Masterson, and at least one of the guys in the bullpen.  Is that too much to ask?  Probably, but there is some decent young talent in Cleveland even if they are a year or two away from seriously contending.

Kansas City Royals

Wins O/U: 71.5- Under

Even with Zack Greinke, the Royals could very well be the worst team in baseball in 2010.  Don’t believe me?  Exhibit A: They signed Jason Kendall to be their catcher.  For 2 years.  Jason Kendall.  Exhibit B: They have seriously considered using Kyle Farnsworth as a starter this season.  Joakim Soria is a pretty good closer and should probably be traded to a contender in July, but other than that it will be a long season in Kansas City on the 4 days out of 5 that Greinke isn’t pitching.

AL West

Texas Rangers

Wins O/U: 84.5- Over

I’m going out on a limb here and saying that this is finally the year the Rangers come up with enough pitching to go with their potent offense.  I don’t necessarily expect Rich Harden to stay healthy all year, but I think that there is enough depth with the young starters and the bullpen has the potential to be very good.  If Josh Hamilton is healthy and can put up numbers similar to those he posted in 2008, they will score a lot of runs.  I liked the acquisition of Valdimir Guerrero.  They should also be solid defensively with Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, and Julio Borbon up the middle.

Los Angeles Angels

Wins O/U: 84.5- Over

The Angels let some of their franchise mainstays in John Lackey, Chone Figgins, and Vald Guerrero go in the offseason, but still have enough to contend in the West.  The rotation is deep, probably the deepest in the division 1 through 5.  The bullpen should be solid and while the lineup should be as well they will be relying pretty heavily on older guys like Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, and Hideki Matsui in the heart of their lineup.  If those three begin to show their age, the Angels’ run of 5 straight division titles could come to and end.

Seattle Mariners

Wins O/U: 83.5- Over

The Mariners got a lot of attention this offseason with the acquisitions of Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins, and Milton Bradley, and those guys should definitely help.  The problem is that they are a team without a whole lot of depth, so if they start losing guys to injury (Cliff Lee is already banged up this spring) they could be in trouble.  Ichiro and Figgins shouldn’t have any problems getting on base, but I don’t know who in that lineup drives them in.  Lee and Felix Hernandez are great at the top of the rotation, but it drops off pretty quickly after that.  The good news is that they will catch the baseball and should support some otherwise questionable pitching.  If they can score enough runs they can certainly contend, there just might be too many question marks for it to happen this year.

Oakland Athletics

Wins O/U: 79.5- Under

There is some good young talent in Oakland, but now it seems that because the rest of the league has caught on to Moneyball GM Billy Beane, he’s changed tactics and…started spending money on iffy veterans like Ben Sheets and Coco Crisp.  There is likely a method to his madness (again) as Crisp’s defense in center could be beneficial for a very good but very young pitching staff and Ben Sheets could be valuable trade bait at the deadline.  But it will a long year in Oakland as they struggle to score runs and wait for all of their young talent to develop.

Coming later today: National League Preview.

Bill Baer over at Crashburn Alley put together a massive Phillies season preview round table featuring some of the finest bloggers around.  Bill was kind enough to let me join in the fun, but because the internet probably would have self destructed if he had posted every blogger’s answers to every single question (hell, I sent him nearly 3,000 words just by myself) some of my answers didn’t make the cut.  What follows are my answers to all 15 of Bill’s questions along with some predictions.  If you haven’t already, you can read the full round table here.  So let’s stop with the small talk and start with the action:

1. How concerned are you about Cole Hamels going into 2010?

Slightly more than the stat guys, much less than those who were clamoring for him to be traded toward the end of last season (and/or instead of Cliff Lee).  I absolutely buy all of the arguments that Hamels’ 2009 was the product of bad luck but I saw two other things last season that make me think his success in 2010 is dependent on more than his BABIP simply regressing toward something closer to the league average.

First, there is a maturity issue.  I’m not saying that because he threw a few tantrums last season that he is a bad guy and a bad pitcher.  What I’m saying is that Cole had a tendency to let a little bad luck spiral into big innings.  Things got away from him quickly at times in ’09 and that can’t continue to happen.  We know that Hamels is a bit of a perfectionist and I’m guessing that when bloop hits fell in against him last year he would dwell on that and not concentrate enough on the next hitter or finding a way to limit the damage.  Some of that has to do with maturity.  He’s only 26.  He’ll grow up.  My hope is that a new baby and an offseason spent changing diapers will put life and baseball in perspective a little bit and he’ll realize that a broken bat single that falls in isn’t the end of the world and he can focus on getting the next out.

Second, I think the league adjusted to his fastball/changeup combo last season and Hamels needs to make a counter adjustment.  When a major league hitter can sit on either the fastball or the change because he knows he can spit on a rare and ineffective curveball he is at a huge advantage even though Hamels has one of the best changeups in the game.  Cole needs to come up with an effective 3^rd pitch to keep hitters honest, and if he can come up with a 4^th that’s even better.  Personally I think a cutter would be more effective for him than the curveball, but he has a longer history with the later.  It will be interesting to see what kind of repertoire Hamels leaves Clearwater with.

2. Give the Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee mega-trade between the Phillies, Blue Jays, and Mariners a letter grade and explain your grading process.

B+  Though I understand the reasoning, I disagreed philosophically with the decision to trade Cliff Lee.  I would prefer to have one great-possibly-transcendent season and then let the chips fall where they may in 2011 (or more realistically 2012) than 3 or 4 or 5 good-possibly-very-good seasons beginning this year.  Really though, that is more of a personal thing and if you don’t already agree with me there probably isn’t a way that I can convince you otherwise.

Spilt milk aside, I’m not sure the haul the Phillies got from Seattle in exchange for Lee was all that great.  Phillippe Aumont is either a solid 2/3 starter, a closer, or a complete flameout and I have no idea which is more likely.  I also can’t decide whether he has too many l’s or too many p’s in his first name, but it’s one or the other.  Tyson Gillies drew rave reviews early in camp for his energy and hustle which is fine except that the outfield is the one spot the Phillies have some depth organizationally.  JC Ramirez has some potential but is a long way from actually reaching it and when you’re that far away there are so many things that can go wrong.  Of course, it’s easy for me to say all that, but half the Philadelphia front office came over from Seattle so maybe it’s better to trust their judgment on these prospects over mine.

No matter how the prospects turn out however, the Phillies still got Roy Halladay.  Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball, they signed him to a reasonable contract, and he is fired up to be here.  It’s tough to complain about that, which is why I ultimately give the trade a pretty high mark.

3. What should the Phillies do about Jayson Werth and his impending free agency?

It depends on two things: The kind of year Jayson Werth has and the kind of year Domonic Brown has.  Werth put up some terrific numbers last year and proved to be an important part of the Phillies lineup.  It’s just that 2009 was the best year of his career and his second best year was not very close.  If his 2010 is comparable to his 2009, then I think you make an effort to re-sign him and make a tough decision on somebody like Ryan Howard to make the money work.  If he regresses in any way, I don’t think you invest 4 or 5 years in a 31 year old outfielder whose best tool is his athleticism.

My thoughts on whether to re-sign Werth also hinge a great deal on the kind of season Brown has in the minors.  If Brown is dominating AAA pitching by July, then I think that sets the bar higher for the type of season Werth would have to have for the Phillies to insist on signing him.  The same bar is lowered if Brown struggles and appears to be more than one year away.  In that case, I think you make and effort to re-sign Werth and hope Brown will be ready when Raul Ibanez leaves after 2011.

4. Jimmy Rollins says he wants to hit .300, accrue 200 hits, score 150 runs, steal 50 bases, and commit 3 or fewer errors. Give us your AVG, H, R, SB, and E predictions for Rollins in 2010.

The only number in that bunch that seems crazy is Jimmy hitting .300.  He didn’t do that in his ’07 MVP season and in ’09 he couldn’t even manage to get on base at a .300 clip.  200 hits and 150 runs isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but it’s not realistic either.  50 steals and 3 errors will be tough, but I could see it.  My prediction: .269/.345/.450, 180 hits, 135 runs, 50 steals, 6 errors.  So he gets to be right about the steals.  Polanco hitting second will afford Jimmy more opportunities to run.

5. Is the duo of Ryan Madson and Danys Baez reliable back-up for ailing closer Brad Lidge?

No.  I do trust Madson in the 9^th inning even though he didn’t do a great job there last year.  In fact, he’s the only reliever I trust at all right now, but if he ends up closing on any sort of consistent basis it is bad news for the Phillies because of what it says about the rest of the bullpen.  I don’t know what Baez brings to the table other than 41 saves for a crappy Devil Rays team in 2005 and a whole lot of mediocrity.  In fact, I will be referring to him as Dany Baez until he proves to me that he has earned his “s”.  You don’t get to make your name plural for no reason.  I’m so glad the Phillies signed him to a 2 year contract.

6. Which team in the NL East worries you the most?

The Florida Marlins and there isn’t a runner up.  Josh Johnson would be the best pitcher in the division if Roy Halladay hadn’t shown up (sorry, Johan who?) and Nolasco and Sanchez form a solid top of the rotation behind him.  Hanley Ramirez is a stud and the lineup is full of solid hitters even if a casual baseball fan couldn’t name most of them.  Dan Uggla, Chris Coghlin, John Baker, Jorge Cantu, and Cody Ross all scare the bejesus out of me for some reason.  The bullpen sucks and the defense isn’t very good, but if they are in the race down the stretch they always seem to be able to acquire a player or two who can help them, like Nick Johnson last year.  I could see Florida winning the NL wildcard, but the Phillies are too good not to win the division in 2010.

7. Teams have been approaching Ryan Howard with a steady diet of left-handed pitching and breaking balls and by employing the shift on the right side of the field. Will this trend continue in 2010, or will Howard make the appropriate adjustments?

The trend will certainly continue as far as how opposing teams will pitch to and defend him.  I don’t rule out the possibility that he will make the needed adjustments, but I wouldn’t bet my life on it either.  I really respect the fact that Howard made an effort to slim down and improve his defense going into the ’09 season after he had won a World Series and signed a big contract.  He looks like he’s kept himself in good shape this winter as well.  However, on a team full of stars, Ryan Howard might be the biggest in terms of endorsement deals (at least nationally) and the reason he gets those endorsements is the long ball.  The necessary adjustments would likely involve cutting down his swing and going the other way more often, but because dudes who hit 50 homers sell five dollar footlongs and dudes who hit .300 don’t, I think we’ll see more of the same out of the big fella in 2010.

8. Placido Polanco is making the switch from second base to third base. How good will he be defensively?

He’ll be fine.  Polanco won 2 gold gloves at 2^nd base in the American League, and while those might not mean a whole lot, the more advanced fielding metrics would suggest that his biggest problem defensively is diminishing range.  He won’t need as much range at 3^rd as he did at 2^nd and his hands are still as good as they’ve always been.  Polanco is a veteran who has been around the block a few times so I don’t think the position change will be much of a problem.  Put it like this: If 3^rd base defense is the Phillies’ biggest problem in 2010 it is going to be a very, very good year.

9. Who should win the #5 spot, Jamie Moyer or Kyle Kendrick?

Simple: The best pitcher should win.  The Phillies should let Moyer and Kendrick and Carpenter and Vogelsong and whoever else duke it out this spring and the best guy should be the 5^th starter.  The problem, of course, is that right now it looks like Kyle Kendrick is the best guy and Jamie Moyer is Jamie Moyer.  Out of respect and because of the money he is earning, I think that Moyer will begin the season as the 5^th starter and eventually there will be no choice but to let Kendick take over.  Basically, it will be a lot like the Chan Ho Park/JA Happ situation last year, except that Moyer isn’t having nearly as good a spring training as Park had.

10. The bench was great in 2008 but disappointing last year. Will the additions of Brian Schneider, Ross Gload, and Juan Castro help?

Schneider, Gload, and Castro are better players than the guys they replaced so in theory they should make the bench better.  The question is whether or not Charlie Manuel will actually use his bench and I’m not sure of the answer to that.  Charlie is the kind of manger who will only use the guys that he trusts, so if he can find something to like about any or all of his bench guys during spring training or in the early part of the season, they will get the at bats they need to be effective.  If for some reason Charlie decides he can’t trust his extra men he won’t use them, and that will be a problem.  Old habits die hard for a man like Charlie Manuel.

11. Will J.A. Happ come close to his 2.93 ERA from 2009?

I guess it depends on what you mean by “close”.  Happ was lucky in a lot of the ways that Cole Hamels was unlucky last year, but it’s not just about the luck.  It’s what you do with it.  Happ did a good job of working his way out of jams and not letting mistakes compound on him last year and if you want to chalk all of that up to good luck you are more than welcome to, but I don’t think baseball works that way over a 162 game season.  The league has now seen him for a full season, and will make adjustments.  The counter-adjustments he makes will go a long way in determining how successful he will be in 2010.  So far this spring, it appears that Happ is working more on his secondary pitches and trying to get outs with those as opposed to the obscene amount of outs he got with a 90 mph fastball he threw high in the zone last year.  This is a good thing.  I think it is reasonable to expect a 3.90ish ERA in 2010 and he’ll hang around in games long enough to get 14-15 wins.  The Phillies will be in good shape if they can get that out of their 4^th starter.

12. The Phillies essentially swapped Chan Ho Park for Jose Contreras. Thumbs up or thumbs down and why?

Thumbs down.  Chan Ho was actually good as a reliever last year and had a track record of being good as a reliever previous to that.  Jose Contreras pitched 7.1 good relief innings at the end of last year, but was a mostly miserable starter for 3 or 4 years before that.  He might be 56 years old for all we know.  I don’t get the Phillies’ obsession with multiple-inning relievers.  Sure, it’s important to have a couple guys who can go more than one inning, but wouldn’t you rather have someone who is reliable for an inning at a time than someone who is capable of pitching multiple innings but is mostly mediocre in the process?  This is an example of Ruben Amaro’s aggressiveness working against him.  He should have waited the relief market out and re-signed Park after his price went down.

That being said, I think that Contreras has a chance to be a decent reliever this season because he can be a one or one-and-a-half pitch pitcher relying mostly on a still effective splitter.  It’s just that Chan Ho Park was the devil we knew and I’d rather have that than the devil we don’t.

13. Which Phillie(s) is/are we most likely to see dealt by the July 31 trading deadline?

I don’t think anyone from the major league roster is getting traded.  Even in a worst case scenario involving major injuries and under-performance leaving the Phillies out of the race at the deadline, I doubt the team would become a July seller.  I guess there’s a scenario in which you could think that if Dom Brown tears it up in AAA and the Phillies find themselves in desperate need of pitching they could try to deal Jayson Werth for some, but I don’t see that happening.  They’ve sold too many tickets for this season to give fans anything less than the idea that they are doing everything they can to win in 2010.

14. The Phillies have had one of baseball’s best defenses for several years running according to most metrics. Does this trend continue?

Yes.  The only defensive change from last season is Polanco replacing Pedro Feliz and I don’t think we’ll see a massive drop-off there.  Even though the rest of the core is aging, they are not to the point of their careers where we’d see a defensive regression.  The possible exception to this could be Raul Ibanez in left, but if he ends up becoming a defensive liability, the Phillies will have Ben Francisco to caddy for him late in games.  We’ll see the same good defense in Philly this season.

15. What will the team get from Domonic Brown this season?

Unless there is a major injury to one of the outfielders, likely just a September call-up.  Even if one of the starting outfielders struggles for the first half of the season or so, I don’t think the Phillies would pull the plug on any of those guys and usher in the Domonic Brown era, even if Brown is putting up ungodly minor league numbers.

Predictions

Phillies W-L, place in division: 95-67, 1^st in NL East

Playoffs: 3^rd Consecutive NL Pennant.  I don’t wish to discuss what I think will happen in the World Series.

Team MVP: Chase Utley

Team Cy Young: Roy Freaking Halladay

Biggest Rookie Contributor: Antonio Bastardo, by default.

Breakout player: Ryan Madson becomes the best non-closing reliever in baseball.  I say non-closing because…

Under-the-radar: Brad Lidge re-establishes himself as a top-5 closer, solidifies the back of the bullpen, and stops Phillies fans from binge-drinking during the 9^th inning of close games

It’s a rainy, miserable Saturday throughout most of the Northeast, so I figured that it was a good opportunity to check in on the Phillies as they played the Minnesota Twins in Clearwater.  The Phils made their first round of cuts today, so we’re entering the point of the spring where the starters are staying in games longer and roster battles (not that the Phillies have a whole lot compared to some other teams) are beginning to heat up.  With that in mind, here are a few thoughts on today’s game thinking mostly of the big picture because, you know, the game didn’t actually count.

• JA Happ looked really good.  He pitched 4 innings and gave up just 1 hit while striking out 3 and walking none.  It looked like he was trying to get outs with his secondary stuff, especially early, and was effective in doing so.  If he is able to take that into the regular season it would be a fantastic development.  He hides the ball so well, but even considering that it was amazing how many (90 mph) high fastballs he seemed to get away with last season.  Mixing in the breaking balls and changeups will be important for him this year as the league might be able to pick up his delivery a litter better than they did last year because they’ve had a good look at him.
• By the way, between Happ today, Blanton against Detroit the other day, and Roy Halladay, the Phillies starting pitching looks pretty good so far this spring.  Cole is working out some kinks, but his velocity is good.  What I’ve seen from Kendrick so far has been good, and reports are that the old man is pitching well in B games.  The starters are going to be incredibly important for the Phillies this season, because there are so few guys to trust in the bullpen.
• In the 4th inning after Jimmy Rollins walked, we saw a little bit of a sneak preview of what it might be like to have Placido Polanco hitting in the 2 hole instead of Shane Victorino.  Polanco worked the count full, which would have given Jimmy an opportunity to run if he wanted to, and then put the 3-2 pitch in play.  It wasn’t spectacular, and the result was a fielder’s choice, but I like the idea of having a guy who takes a lot of pitches and can put the ball in play with 2 strikes hitting behind Rollins and ahead of Chase and company.  I’d like for Shane to hit 6th ahead of Ibanez, but we’ll see if Charlie ends up agreeing with me as the season moves along.
• Ben Francisco crushed a homer to left in the 5th inning.  He pulls just about everything, but he’s a good hitter and I hope his role is slightly bigger this season than simply being Raul Ibanez’s caddy.  It’d be nice for him to get 30 or 40 starts between left and center.
• Antonio Bastardo did not look sharp at all today.  Between him and Scott Mathieson (who got sent down today in the first round of cuts), it’s not looking good for the two guys I was really hoping would step up and play major roles out of the pen for the Phillies this year.  They have the best stuff out of all the candidates.
• Cody Ransom hit a 3 run homer in the 7th that gave the Phillies the lead.  He’s been on a tear lately.  Of course, because Ruben Amaro gave Juan Castro a guaranteed deal this winter, Ransom is auditioning either for other teams or for the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs.  Castro might be fine, I’m just not sure what he brings to the table that warrants a guaranteed contract instead of bringing in a bunch of guys like Ransom and Brian Bocock and letting the best man win.
• Jose Contreras looked better than he did in his last outing against the Yankees, and I’m still hoping for the best out of him and Dany Baez (who looked pretty good today too).  By the way, Dany Baez will have to earn his “s” from me this season, as I do not believe that people should get to make their names plural without a really good reason.  Like lights out relief in the 7th or 8th innings of tight ballgames.

I could write the typical “Ah, baseball…the crack of the bat, the pop of the mitt, the smell of the grass” intro that I think is a requirement to pass baseball writing 101 in this space, but I think I’d rather be honest with you.  I didn’t start a niche sports blog and name it after myself so the few of you who can stand my narcissism long enough to get through an entry would have to read fluff.  So let’s get right down to it.  By the middle of last November, baseball had completely burned me out.  I coach a varsity baseball team that went through a heart-breaking season on and off the field.  The Phillies losing to New York in the World Series while I lived in Manhattan surrounded by Yankees fans really took the piss out of me.  The Cliff Lee trade bugged me for philosophical and existential reasons that nobody wants to talk about anymore.  Suffice it to say, I spent most of the winter not really caring when baseball came back.  I needed some time away and I took it.

But the truth is that I am a junkie.  I could never totally give up baseball.  It means way more to me than it possibly should.  And when Roy Halladay starts the first real spring training game of the season against the Yankees and CC Sabathia, I…have to.  I don’t have a choice.  And you know what?  Baseball and I picked right back up where we left off.

The Phillies beat the Yankees 3-2.  It’s the first spring game of the season and nothing that happened really matters, but let’s get back into the swing of things with some thoughts and observations that I had while watching the game:

• The first thing you notice about Roy Halladay is that he is a massive dude.  I mean, I’ve seen him pitch plenty of times before as a Blue Jay, but there is something different about him in red pinstripes.  He’s intimidating.  Of course, he also puts the ball where ever he wants and moves it off both sides of the plate.  No matter how the season turns out, it will be fun to watch him 30-35 times a year.
• It was nice to see Placido Polanco square up a pitch against CC in the 1st inning.  I’ll be interested to see how his bat control and plate discipline change the dynamic of the lineup if he indeed ends up hitting second.
• I know we’ve been over this on Twitter and everywhere else, but as a connoisseur of fine beards, Jayson Werth looks like a bad ass.  I’ve come around on him a lot since the beginning of last season, but I’m also curious to see how he follows up the best year of his career.
• I don’t see how Brian Bocock could be that much worse than Juan Castro.  We ought to make him Eric Brunlett’s replacement.  Would there ever be a more popular Philly athlete?  Also, “The Cock”, as I like to call him has one of those mustaches that the 8th graders who hit puberty faster than all of their peers get.  Good times.
• Kyle Kendrick looked good.  I hope he wins the 5th starter job.  I still think it’s Jamie Moyer’s gig to lose, however.
• I’m a little skeptical about Jose Contreras, but I think a full-time move to the bullpen could help him.  He still has a nasty splitter, and as a reliever he could become a one and a half or two pitch pitcher throwing mostly the split and mixing in his fastball.  He wouldn’t need much else.
• That Quentin Berry kid is fast.  I’m not sure he’ll ever be anything other than fast, but he is definitely fast.