It doesn’t make sense for a lot of reasons, but I love Andy Kaufman.  In fact, I’m probably the biggest Andy Kaufman fan you know, because I am guessing you don’t know too many others.  It doesn’t make sense because most of Andy’s prime years came before I was born, so I had to experience him in retrospect.  Retrospect was a lot harder to do in the mid-90’s when I was first turned on to him.  It doesn’t make sense because there isn’t really a whole lot to like about Andy Kaufman.  He is probably most famous for the TV show Taxi, which was also probably his worst work.  He didn’t make a lot of movies, and the ones he did make don’t hold up.  He was a performance artist (he preferred “song and dance man”) above all else, but even that devolved into a bizarre foray into professional wrestling toward the end of his short life.  But for whatever reason, my pre-to-early teen self felt a connection with Mr. Kaufman.  I felt like I got him.  It doesn’t make sense, but it doesn’t change how I feel.

In 1999, director Milos Forman made a relatively well done film about Andy’s life called Man on the Moon starring Jim Carrey, which you probably saw and forgot about.  If my memory serves me, this movie came out around Christmas time, because every single one of my friends wanted to take me to see the movie as my Christmas gift.  To this day, I have never seen a movie in the theater more times than I saw Man on the Moon, and I didn’t pay to see it once.  In fact, I saw it 4 times before I saw it with my then-girlfriend.  I lied to her about this fact because she had planned to take me as part of a larger, more special gift and I felt that if she knew I had already seen the movie 4 times she might feel that the gift would be cheapened.  She was a really great girl and I liked her a lot.  Now, just about a decade later, we don’t speak and haven’t for several years.  I should have appreciated that time while I was experiencing it.  Such is life.

Anyway, there is a scene in the movie that kept playing over and over in my head when it looked more and more that my Philadelphia Phillies had a realistic chance of acquiring my favorite non-Phillie of my lifetime, Roy Halladay.  One line from this scene played over and over, louder and louder in my head when it became increasingly likely that said Halladay acquisition would require my Phillies to deal Cliff Lee, a stud pitcher of whom I am also very fond.  In the scene, Kaufman’s BFF Bob Zmuda (played by Paul Giamatti) takes Andy to a brothel to blow off some steam.  The working ladies line themselves up in front of Kaufman and Zmuda with the idea that Andy will pick the one he likes and go to town, so to speak.  Andy, feigning shyness around the ladies, sort of closes his eyes and points to two different women.  Zmuda tells Andy that he needs to pick one.  Andy replies, in a German accent for some reason, “I vill have zem bot!”

That is the line that repeats itself over and over in my head when I think about the trade(s) that bring us Roy Halladay and lose us Cliff Lee.  I don’t want to make up my mind.  “I will have them both!”

I’ve put off writing this for as long as I felt like I could.  It probably would be prudent to put it off for a little while longer.  I hoped to feel differently about this, and given time I still might.  But I’ve spent the better part of six months conjuring up scenarios that would bring Roy Halladay to the Phillies and now that this little dream of mine has come true, I never imagined I would feel so…disappointed.  Maybe disappointed isn’t the right word, but it’s the first word that comes to mind.  Perhaps nonplussed.  Ambivalent works too.  This is not how I thought I would feel at all.  This is not how I want to feel.

Don’t get me wrong, the trade works.  It makes the Phillies better in 2010 and gives them a shot to keep this World Series window open a year or two longer.  The Phillies aren’t the Yankees.  They have to work within a budget.  I understand that.  I understand that Cliff Lee wanted to become a free agent and sign as large a contract as the market would bear after the 2010 season.  It’s hard to blame a guy for that, especially since he’s been badly outperforming his current contract for the last two seasons and probably will in 2010.  I understand that it is a good idea to maintain a productive major league feeder system in the minor leagues, and trading Lee to Seattle replenishes what was lost to Toronto to acquire Roy Halladay to a certain extent.  I get it.  It’s prudent.  It makes sense.  And that’s probably why I hate it.

Well, hate isn’t the right word either, but as you can see I am still searching.  I LOVE Roy Halladay.  I am fired up to get him but I can’t help but feel like the Phillies missed a rare opportunity here.  Perhaps a once in a lifetime opportunity.  Some of you will agree with me on this and perhaps more of you won’t, but either way I don’t think I’ll be able to change your mind with what I have to say.  The reason is because I’m talking as much about a life philosophy as a baseball philosophy.  In life, as in baseball, you don’t get that many opportunities to be great.  Truly great.  Transcendent.  With this trade, the Phillies set themselves up to be very good for a long time.  That’s fine.  But if the Phillies had traded Roy Halladay and held on to Cliff Lee, fully acknowledging that they would not be able to sign him after this season, the team could have had transcendent greatness in 2010.  Instead, they will just be very good in 2010 and probably for the next 3-4 seasons going forward.  Aspiring to be great requires greater risk than simply being good, but the reward cannot be measured.  2010 could have been one of, if not the best year of our life as Phillies fans.  We could have watched one of the most dominant rotations of our lifetime in Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Who-cares-because-they-won’t-start-in-the-playoffs-anyway paired with one of the best offenses/defenses in baseball.

Instead, the Phillies will be one of the best teams in the National League.  More than likely they’ll make the playoffs and we’ll just have to hope for the best once they get there.  But hoping for the best didn’t work out so great last year in the World Series.  The Yankees were clearly better than the Phillies were and they will be again in 2010.  Now that the Red Sox have signed John Lackey, they are probably better than the Phillies too should they beat the Yankees and represent the AL in the ‘10 World Series.  Let me present you with this: If the Phillies had traded for Halladay instead of Lee at the ‘09 trading deadline, and we assume that Halladay takes Lee’s World Series starts, is the outcome any different?  I don’t see a way in which you can argue that it is.  Pitching wasn’t the only reason we didn’t beat the Yankees, but it didn’t help that we trotted out a clearly spent Pedro Martinez in game 6 either.  My point is that I felt the Phillies were an arm short last year and trading for Halladay and dealing away Lee doesn’t really solve that issue.

As I mentioned, I realize that there were practical issues that came with trading for Roy Halladay in terms of dollars and prospects.  But I don’t buy for a second that trading Cliff Lee was the only way to solve them.  It was the safest way, also probably the easiest, and while I learn that a lot of people disagree with me as I make my way through life, safe and easy decisions have a ceiling.  You get to be very good.  You get to keep your job.  Whatever.  I don’t care about any of that.

They way I see it, there were other ways the Phillies could have made this work.  First of all, they could have non-tendered Chad Durbin.  They’d save about $2 million right there.  I think they should have done that anyway, but that’s beside the point.  We’re hearing reports that the Phillies tried to shop Joe Blanton to no avail.  Bullshit.  Randy Wolf just signed for 3 years and around $30 million with the Milwaukee Brewers.  Are you telling me that there isn’t a team out there that would be willing to give up one decent prospect for 1 year and $6-7 million of Joe Blanton instead of throwing Randy Wolf money at Joel Piniero or Jason Marquis?  Really?  Even after Brad Penny, a health and attitude risk, signed for $7.5 million with incentives that could take him to $9 million in St. Louis?  And wouldn’t that prospect, along with the draft picks you got for allowing Cliff Lee to walk after the season, be just about the same thing you got when you traded Lee to Seattle?  Yes, the prospects would probably be a year or two further away, but the prospects the Phillies got from Seattle aren’t exactly knocking on the door either.  And if you really, truly couldn’t trade Blanton, wouldn’t Shane Victorino almost certainly bring a better prospect?  I’m baffled.  Ruben Amaro, Jr. missed one here.  I really believe that.

This thing is all so dissatisfying because I know that watching Roy Halladay for the next 4-5 years will be one of the great joys of my life.  But I won’t be able to do it without wondering what might have been.  As if I haven’t said enough already, let’s sort through some of the other issues of the trade, some good, some bad, bullet-point style:

• Cole Hamels has to return to his 2008 form now.  He absolutely has to.  I buy most if not not all of the reasons for his disappointing ‘09 season and have a lot of confidence that he will indeed bounce back.  But I don’t think that it’s the lock that everyone seems to be assuming it is.  Those among us with statistical analysis leanings (I am an appreciator and an admirer, but not a card-carrying member) point to several numbers, most notably an absurdly high BABIP that would make it seem that a lot of Hamels failures can be attributed to bad luck.  Again, I buy this for the most part.  I watched all of Hamels’ starts last year and what I saw was a guy who, yes, was mentally exhausted and blooped and bleed to death.  I also saw a guy who clearly needs to make an adjustment to a league that has adjusted to him.  Cole is a two-pitch pitcher and while his changeup is among the most dominant in the game, if he only has that and the fastball major league hitters can sit on one or the other and hit him.  That’s why I don’t think that 100% of Hamels’ failures last year can be written off as bad luck.  I don’t think baseball works that way over an entire season.  A lot of  “cheap” hits fell in against Cole because hitters took a good approach to him and fought him off.  The key to Hamels’ success in 2010 will be the development of a 3rd pitch, probably his curveball, to give hitters something else to think about at the plate.  I think it’s an adjustment he will make, but I wouldn’t bet my life on it.
• If we’re going to attribute Hamels’ season to bad luck, the same statistical measures would have you believe that JA Happ had a lot of good luck in 2009.  I think we can expect some sort of regression for Happ in 2010, which puts our rotation in a similar place.  So, in my opinion, still not good enough.
• I don’t know a whole lot about the prospects coming our way from Seattle, but the consensus among people who do seems to be that they are not as good as the ones we sent to Toronto.  That’s to be expected.  I have no problem with acquiring two pitchers as you can never, ever have enough pitching.  I do wonder about the outfield prospect, Tyson Gillies, not because he isn’t good, but because even after dealing Mike Taylor to Toronto (who will ship him to Oakland, by the way), the Phillies system still has a ton of outfield depth.  Gillies is a speed guy and we already have two of those in Anthony Gose and Quintin Berry.  An infielder or catcher seems like a better move here, especially because it doesn’t appear that Gillies is a blue-chipper.
• Roy Halladay’s extention at 3 years and $60 million, is fantastic mostly because of the years.  They money is slightly below market value as well, but not having to pay $20 million for a 37 or 38 year old pitcher (there is a vesting option for a 4th year) is great.
• Ruben Amaro should get ripped for giving Jamie Moyer a 2 year deal before the ‘09 season as much or more than he should be praised for any of the other good moves he has made.  I had no problem with the money Moyer earned last season as a thank you for ‘08.  He could have earned more for all I care.  But two guaranteed years for a 46 year old pitcher is stupid.  Was Moyer really getting 2 years from anyone else?  Do you think the Phillies could use an extra $8 million right now?

I’m sure I’m forgetting things, but I think I’ve said just about all I have to say about this right now.  Come opening day, I imagine I will be 100% on board and the biggest Roy Halladay fan on the planet.  But for right now, I’m just…I don’t know.  I still can’t find the right word.

They couldn’t (or decided not to) get Roy Halladay, so the Phillies did the next best thing.  They acquired Cliff Lee today, along with outfielder Ben Francisco, for pitching prospects Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco, infielder Jason Donald, and catcher Lou Marson.

I like this deal a lot for the Phillies, but I also think that Cleveland did well for themselves.  The Indians ended up with two high-ceiling pitchers, something that is lacking in their system, and two potential everyday position players who could step into the lineup relatively soon.  The Phillies added a top of the rotation starter at a great price and in the prime of his career.  They also added the righty bat to the bench that they’ve been looking for all year.  While I am disappointed that the Phils were unable to add Halladay, I don’t think that in the end Toronto GM had any idea what he was doing and wasn’t really very serious about doing a deal.  I give Ruben Amaro a lot of credit for ignoring Riccardi’s childishness, and making a trade that clearly makes the Phillies the NL favorites.  And he did all of it without surrendering JA Happ, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, or Dominic Brown.  Lets take a deeper look at the players involved in the trade, and delve into some of the issues surrounding it.

Cliff Lee. The 2008 Cy Young winner was obviously the centerpiece of the deal for the Phillies, and his addition to the rotation helps the team immensely.  He’s not quite an ace along the lines of Roy Halladay, but he is a very solid 1b type of pitcher, who, paired with Cole Hamels makes an excellent 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.  Lee’s 7-9 record with Cleveland isn’t impressive, the result of pitching for a poor team.  But he comes over with a 3.14 ERA and a 107/33 strikeout to walk ratio and those are numbers that should improve with facing weaker lineups in the National League.  He’s a little bit of a fly ball pitcher, so he could give up some home runs in Philadelphia, but those ought to be more than offset by the offense that will support him.  Lee is a control pitcher who goes deep into games (14 of his 22 starts have gone 7+ innings, easily better than any of his new Phillies teammates) and should be a key piece for the Phillies both this year and in 2010.  He also comes at about half the price of Halladay, both in terms of prospects and money.  His contract calls for him to make $5.75 million this year with an $8 million dollar team option for 2010 which (barring a major injury or extreme ineffectiveness) will be picked up.

Ben Francisco. The 27 year old outfielder was acquired to fulfill the season long search for for a righty bat off the bench.  Francisco is a versatile player who can play all three outfield positions and has a little bit of pop in his bat.  He had been particularly hot with the bat in the month of July, hitting .329 with 5 of his 10 home runs for the season.  Obviously his at bats will be reduced drastically with the move to Philly, but team management must think that he is a better fit for a reserve role than John Mayberry.  At age 26, I’m not sure Mayberry will ever be an everyday player in the big leagues (especially not in Philadelphia) and his skill set is very similar to Francisco’s.  So Mayberry will likely get regular at bats in AAA and could be dealt for a reliever or a similar prospect at a different position at some point.  The Phillies have a lot of depth in the outfield right now.  By the way, Francisco, like Lee, comes relatively inexpensively.  He will be under the Phillies’ control for the next four years.

Jason Knapp. At age 18, Knapp stands 6′5″ and weighs 240 pounds.  He also throws his fastball in the 95-98 range and compliments it with an above average curveball.  He was clearly the centerpiece of the deal from the Indians end.  There have been comparisons to Roy Halladay bandied about, but I assure you that those are stupid.  He doesn’t have nearly the repertoire of pitches that Halladay has and he’s 18 and has never pitched above A ball.  So don’t let those comparisons freak you out.  Besides, Roy Halladay was a late bloomer and never at any point had Knapp’s fastball.  But Knapp is a very valuable, high-upside arm for the Indians.  He’s been disabled of late with some shoulder fatigue, but this is a relatively minor issue and he should pass the physical.  While Knapp could very well become an ace for Cleveland at some point, there is a lot that can go wrong with such a young pitcher between now and then.  It was a risk worth taking for the Indians, and a fair piece to lead a package for a pitcher like Cliff Lee.

Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco has gone from being the Phillies top prospect a year ago to being passed over for the likes of Andrew Carpenter and Rodrigo Lopez this season when the big club needed reinforcements for the rotation.  Carrasco has struggled with his promotion to AAA this season, despite his top of the rotation stuff.  There are questions about his makeup and poise on the mound (he is prone to the big inning) and also with his command.  Still, his stuff makes him a major league prospect and if the Indians can find Carrasco a good pitching coach that finds a way to get through to him (or if he simply matures on his own, something entirely possible at age 22) they could have themselves a fine starter.

Jason Donald. Like Adrian Cardenas last season (traded for Joe Blanton), Jason Donald is blocked in Philadelphia by some guys named Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley.  The Phillies tried him at third in spring training in hopes that he could be the heir apparent to Pedro Feliz in 2010, but it became clear that he was not cut out for the hot corner.  So Donald moves on to Cleveland where he should be able to compete for time at either shortstop or second base relatively soon.  Donald might not have the range to play shortstop everyday in the majors, so he may eventually settle in a second or as a utility guy.  He has some pop in his bat for a middle infielder and hits a lot of line drives.  I’d say he can hit around .275 with 12-15 home runs if given an everyday opportunity.

Lou Marson. It appeared that Marson had fallen out of favor a bit in the eyes of Phillies management, as he never got a real opportunity to catch at the major league level even as the team struggled to find a decent backup to Carlos Ruiz.  It appears that the Indians could very well trade Victor Martinez in the next day or two, and this could provide Marson the opportunity to catch  on a regular basis.  Reports are that Marson lacks a good throwing arm and won’t hit for very much power, but in the few opportunities I had to see him I thought his footwork looked good and he ought to be able to hit for a decent average.  It remains to be seen whether he will be able to be an everyday major league catcher, but at the very least he could be a solid backup/platoon type of guy.

JP Riccardi is an idiot. Unless he has Clay Buchholz from Boston or some other sweetheart deal from another club in his back pocket (and after the Phillies bowed out the price dropped, so why would he?) Riccardi completely overplayed his had on this one and Ruben Amaro called his bluff.  On the radio today, Amaro said that before he completed the Lee deal, he called Riccardi and offered him the same package plus JA Happ and Riccardi refused.  We also know that if published reports are to be believed, Riccardo turned down an offer of JA Happ, Michael Taylor, Donald, and Carrasco for Halladay.  So unless Riccardi can pull off a better Halladay deal in the next two days, he ought to be fired on the spot.  This whole situation was handled so poorly, from the leaks, to the posturing, to the fake deadlines, and all he will have to show for it is a 4th place finish in the AL East on 2010 and two draft picks in exchange for Roy Halladay.  I guess Riccardi could try to trade Halladay in the offseason or at this time next year, but he won’t get a better package than he could have gotten from the Phillies today.

What happens with the rotation now? Hamels, Lee, and Blanton are your top three.  JA Happ is pitching well and deserves to stick in the rotation.  I doubt that the Phillies will move Jamie Moyer to the bullpen even though I’m in the minority that thinks he could be effective out there.  Sadly, I think Rodrigo Lopez has thrown his last pitch for the Phillies, unless it’s as a reliever.  I’m not sure how well his stuff would work out of the bullpen, but it’s worth a shot.  He also could very well be traded.  The wild card here is Pedro Martinez.  We don’t know how long it will take him to get ready and how effective he will be when he gets here.  I would really like to see him pitch out of the bullpen.  I think that he could be a dynamic, Chan Ho Park type of multiple inning arm that would provide a big boost to the depleted troops out there.  The Phillies have so far indicated that this is not in the plans and that they intend for Pedro to start, but how many starters can you have?  It’s a good problem, and one that may very well sort itself out, but for right now my vote is for Pedro to the pen and Rodrigo to another team for something useful, even if it’s just a middle-tier prospect to replenish the depth of the farm system.

Final verdict. I love this deal for the Phillies.  To acquire a top of the rotation starter, fill a hole on the bench, and still keep the core of the farm system intact is quite a feat.  Ruben Amaro deserves congratulations for that.  I still would have preferred Roy Halladay, and I disappointed we did not get him.  But with Cliff Lee on board and the rotation now in good shape, the Phillies are in very good position to repeat as World Series champions.

“I might surprise you; I might not. But it’s going to be fun.” Pedro Martinez at his introductory press conference after signing with the Phillies, 7/15/09.

The long rumored Pedro Martinez signing happened today for the Phillies and in a way I’m kind of glad that the process was drawn out the way it was.  I needed time to get used to a guy that hated on the Mets suddenly wearing the red pinstripes.  Now that cooler (or perhaps delusional) heads have had a chance to prevail, I can see this signing for what it is: a low risk, medium-to-high reward chance on a future Hall of Famer who was once the best pitcher in baseball.

Watching his press conference today, Martinez seems to be every bit the charming, charismatic guy that I loved to loathe in his previous spots.  But there is also a humility and an honesty about him that is endearing.  There were some concerns that he might not fit in the Phillies clubhouse.  I think Pedro alleviated those concerns today.  The chemistry is too good on this team to let one guy ruin it anyway, but I think Pedro will fit in just fine.  It’s hard not to like the guy.  This is a man who realizes that he is a shell of his former self, and that we are not going to see the Pedro Martinez that we saw ten years ago.  He will not try to do more than he is capable of doing and hurt the team.  But this is also a man who was once one of the greatest competitors in the game and who still has some of that fire left.  He thinks he still has a few bullets in that 37 year old arm and has the confidence and desire to fire them effectively.  I’m not going to lie.  I was talking myself into Pedro over the last few days because it looked like the prospect of him in a Phillies uniform was inevitable, and I’d rather be on board than not.  But Pedro did a nice sell job on me today.  All that’s left is for him to actually prove it on the mound.

The potential downside of this deal is obvious.    His arm could be shot.  He could give up too many home runs in Citizens Bank Park.  He could no longer be able to get major league hitters out.  He could be off the roster by August and make the Phillies regret replacing Rodrigo Lopez.  That’s the worst case scenario.  If that happens, it will be disappointing, but it will not be the type of move that turns a pennant race against us.  I think the Phillies would cut the cord on Pedro before it got to the point that he potentially costs us a playoff spot.  In the end, if it doesn’t work out, the team is only out a million bucks.  I can’t afford to be out that amount of money, but I think that the Phillies can.

It’s hard to say what the upside of this deal could be or even what expectations should be.  I think the absolute dream scenario is that he pitches like a quality 2/3 starter, becomes a reliable winner down the stretch, and becomes a key factor in a World Series run.  He’s not going to eat innings, but if we got six innings out of him per start, an ERA in the low 3.00’s and a better ground to fly ball ratio, I’d be thrilled.

More realistically, however, I think we are looking at something like a right-handed Jamie Moyer.  Not the Jamie Moyer that looked spent at the beginning of the season, but the Jamie Moyer who only occasionally looks spent now.  I think we’ll get a lot of outings in the 5-6 inning range where Pedro will give up 2-4 runs and keep the Phillies in the game.  We’ll probably get a 6 run clunker where he doesn’t get out of the 5th inning every once in a while as well.  But all things considered, for a 4th or 5th starter for whom we didn’t give up any prospects and only paid $1 million (plus incentives, which will be worth it if reached), it’s not a bad deal.  Count me in for the Perdo Martinez era in Philadelphia.  Either way, it’s going to be fun, right?

I had a feeling, despite what the reports were saying, that the market for starting pitching would pick up as teams fell further out of the race.  I thought guys like Cliff Lee, Eric Bedard, and possibly even Roy Oswalt would become available after their teams realized that this wasn’t their year, and their respective aces were either already making a whole lot of money or were about to in the next year or so.  However, never in my wildest dreams did I imagine that the Blue Jays would make Roy Halladay available.  And believe me, my dreams of Roy Halladay in red pinstripes were pretty wild.

But today my dreams came one step closer to reality with a report from Ken Rosenthal that the fast-fading Blue Jays are willing to listen to offers on their esteemed ace.  Now, before I get crazy, let’s not get too crazy here.  Toronto doesn’t have to trade trade Halladay.  In fact, if you ask me, they shouldn’t. (Though I swear that if they do ask me I will lie.)  They would have to be blown away with an offer in order to move him.  Which means that if the Phillies want to get him, the Phillies will have to part with several of their top prospects.  If you’re not into that, this probably isn’t the place for you to be right now, because I am 100% okay with that.  Now, with that being said, let’s look at some of the factors involved in whether or not Roy Halladay will be coming to Philadelphia.

First, I am writing this from the position that the Phillies have a core of players that are ready to win now, and they have about a 3 year window in which to do that.  After that, they are going to have to make some tough decisions about some guys that will be on the wrong side of their primes (Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, etc.) and will likely need to enter a rebuilding phase anyway.  So from where I’m seated, the time is now.  Roy Halladay, at age 32, is the best pitcher in the game. He is the Chase Utley of pitchers- an old school, throw back kind of guy.  He will be adored in Philadelphia.  He probably has 2-3 years left in his prime and fits right in with the idea that multiple World Series titles for this core of players is a worthy goal.

So what would the Blue Jays want for Halladay?  Well, if they are indeed serious about trading their ace it likely means that they don’t have what it takes to compete in the AL East in the next few years and need to build something toward 2012-ish.  To do that, they need to shed salary and acquire as much young talent as possible.  It means that they would likely be interested in moving such high salary guys such as Vernon Wells, Alex Rios and possibly even Scott Rolen.  Wells and Rios would be extraordinarily difficult considering their exorbitant salaries relative to their production.  But if they are able to move those guys, they could be looking for cheap young replacements in the outfield, as well as guys who could eventually play third, shortstop, or first.  Also, they will be looking for pitching.  Everybody is looking for pitching.

But what could the Blue Jays reasonably expect to get?  I think we can look at last year’s deal for CC Sabathia and this year’s near deal for Jake Peavy for something close to an answer.  For Sabathia, the Indians got one of the top prospects in the game in Matt LaPorta, and three prospects who would be considered second or third tier.  For Peavy, the Padres were to receive two of the White Sox top pitching prospects, a young bullpen arm, and another prospect whose name did not surface as the deal was vetoed.  So those packages could be the baseline for any Halladay deal.  However, the price could be higher as the circumstances of the deals are different.  Sabathia was just a few months away from free agency, lowering his value slightly compared to Halladay.  San Diego felt some pressure to move Peavy because their ownership situation created the need to cut payroll.  Halladay’s price would likely be higher because he is signed through 2010, and the Blue Jays are not mandated to cut payroll.  To to trade Halladay, they will need to be blown away.

The good news for the Phillies is that they definitely have the prospects to overwhelm the Jays.  They may not have a guy who is ready to step into the major leagues and produce right away, but they have a number of prospects who are knocking on the door and it might take as many as four or five to get a deal done.  Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown are probably the Phillies’ top rated prospects at the moment, with guys like Carlos Carrasco, Michael Taylor, Jason Knapp, Jason Donald (though he’s banged up at the moment), and Lou Marson following.  Behind that, there is an interesting group of pitchers consisting of Johan Flande, Mike Stutes, Vance Worley, Joe Savery, and some more polished, possibly major league ready guys like Kyle Kendrick and Andrew Carpenter.  Perhaps even John Mayberry fits in there if the Jays are interested.  For me, a reasonable offer would be to let Toronto pick two from the first two categories and then two of the guys from the final one. I’m not sure if that’s too much or too little, but it seems about right to me.  If Toronto wants Drabek, fine, then maybe I hesitate to put Carrasco in the deal.  Same thing for Brown/Taylor.

The potential return for Halladay gets interesting when you consider reports that Toronto has scouts in Philadelphia tonight to look at JA Happ.  Happ doesn’t have the ceiling of a guy like Drabek or Carrasco, but he could step into the Toronto rotation now as Halladay’s replacement.  He’s young and he’d be under the Blue Jay’s control for 5 more years.  However, this could be a problem for the Phillies as Happ has been our best pitcher of late.  The Phillies are not looking to upgrade Happ’s spot in the rotation, the are looking to upgrade the spot currently filled by Rodrigo Lopez.  So while Halladay is a clear upgrade over Happ, there is still a hole that would need to be filled.  Of course, with Halladay on board they could fill that spot with Pedro Martinez, Paul Byrd, or simply let Lopez pitch until he fails and worry about it later.  Halladay solves a lot of problems.  However, if there is any way at all to keep Happ out of this deal I would do it.  If the Jays insist on him to the point where it becomes a deal breaker, then you have to include Happ.  But give them Drabek, Carrasco, whoever.  Happ is the only guy who has proven himself in the majors so far.

The final thing to consider about the potential acquisition of Halladay is that there are 29 other clubs in baseball that would love to have him as well.  There will likely be some stiff competition for his services and the Phillies will have to outbid several other clubs to pull off the deal.  Rosenthal lists about half the teams in baseball as potential Halladay suitors, but I think the reality is that there will be far fewer.  In addition to finding a team that has enough prospects to entice the Blue Jays to deal, the receiving team must be able to afford Halladay’s contract.  He is due to receive about $7 million for the rest of this season and $15.75 million in 2010.  A lot of teams can’t afford that.  The Phillies ought to be able to.  Let’s break down some of the clubs that could also be in the running for Roy Halladay:

• New York Yankees: They certainly have the money to be in on every big name who becomes available.  But they may not have the prospects.  What they do have in the farm system is at the lower levels, so the Phillies could certainly beat them out there.  Also, after spending big on CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett in the offseason, they may not have the inclination to make a move that the Phils have.
• Boston Red Sox: Like the Yankees, they have the money to take on just about any salary.  Unlike the Yankees, they also have prospects they can deal.  A package led by Clay Buchholz is probably better than anything the Phillies could do.  However, the Red Sox might like to keep their top prospects as they are in much better shape with their rotation than the Phillies are.  Also, if they do deal their top prospects, they might prefer to do so for a hitter like Victor Martinez.  And would the Jays trade Halladay within the division?
• Anaheim Angels: Their rotation is banged up and they could sure use a guy like Halladay.  They have shown that they will make a big trade in the past (Mark Teixeira last year), but they might not have the prospects to get it done.
• Texas Rangers: The Rangers have one of the best farm systems in baseball and Halladay could put them over the top.  However, their ownership is having some financial troubles at the moment (rumors of having to borrow money from MLB to make payroll) and they may not be able to afford to take on Halladay’s contract.  Good thing for the Phillies, because Texas could blow just about anyone out of the water with the prospects they could offer if they wanted to.
• New York Mets: The Mets have all kinds of problems right now and Halladay would only fix a few of them.  They could afford him, but would he even go to a team like that?  The Mets haven’t been willing to deal their top prospects so far, and they don’t have much depth in the minors to work with.  Also, if Halladay went to the Mets, I would personally hijack and crash the plane he was scheduled to fly in on.  Lots of innocent people could die.  It would be best for all involved if JP Riccardi just loses Omar Minaya’s number.
• Milwaukee Brewers: The Brew Crew needs starting pitching (just ask Ryan Braun), and they made the deal for Sabathia last year.  They have said that they will not deal top prospects Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar, and after that the cupboard is pretty bare.  They will probably get somebody (Doug Davis?), but it won’t be Roy Halladay
• Los Angeles Dodgers: They’ve got a great team in a pitcher’s park, but they probably lack a true ace.  Halladay could fill that void.  They could be hesitant to take on the money, and they may not have the prospects unless they include Clayton Kershaw, which I can’t imagine they’d do.

We’ll have to wait and see where this story heads over the next few days and weeks, but the Phillies look to be in good position to make my favorite non-Phillie a Phillie.  Halladay would all but guarantee a post season spot, and would make them the favorites to be the National League representative in the World Series.  It’s not everyday a guy like Roy Halladay comes onto the market, and when you have the chance, you have to go get him.  No matter what it takes.

The Phillies needed to trade for another starting pitcher even before Brett Myers prematurely exited last night’s game against the Florida Marlins with hip inflammation.  Today we learned that Myers will more than likely need surgery on that hip and will miss most, if not all of the rest of the season.  Even if today’s reports jumped the gun a bit, the best case scenario we are probably looking at is that Myers will pitch the rest of the season with the aid of painkillers.  I’m not sure how good of a scenario that actually is.  But more than likely we are looking a losing Myers for the rest of the season, and that is not a good thing at all.  Before we get into what the Phillies should do about this situation, I would like to make two quick observations:

• First, with Myers gone the Phillies absolutely cannot trade JA Happ.  Not that I wanted them to trade Happ before Myers got hurt, but I could have been talked into it if it meant landing a guy like Jake Peavy.  Now, not only do we need Happ in the rotation, but we need him to pitch like a #2-3 starter, at least until reinforcements arrive.  Happ has been terrific this season (2-0, 2.60 ERA including his recent start) and he’s probably more valuable to us right now than he would be to another team.
• We may not have seen the last of Brett Myers in a Phillies uniform.  Myers will be a free agent after this season, and many people (myself included) simply assumed the team would let him walk, a la Pat Burrell.  Myers has shown flashes of brilliance in Philadelphia, but never quite seemed to reach his potential.  Now, if he is indeed out for the rest of the season, the large contract that would lead to his departure might not be forthcoming.  Myers may be forced (or find it behooves him) to sign a 1-year, incentive-laden deal to reestablish his value, and if he is going to do that, he may as well do it in Philly.  Myers has often stated his desire to stay with the only organization he has ever known, and this injury just might cause him to stick around for another year.  Of course, that doesn’t exactly help us this year, but it was something I thought was interesting.

In the short term, the Phillies will likely call someone up from the minors to replace Myers.  Candidates for a call up include Kyle Kendrick, Carlos Carrasco, Andrew Carpenter, and Antonio Bastardo.  Kendrick and Carpenter are both low-ceiling, sinker ball type pitchers who don’t bring a whole lot to the table.  Kendrick was very good after a similar emergency call up in 2007, but the league caught up to him and he failed to adjust.  Carpenter was underwhelming in a spot start earlier this season, though he got the win.  Carrasco is our #1 pitching prospect, but he has struggled for the most part in AAA.  I’m not sure he’s ready.  Bastardo, however, intrigues me.  The Phillies had him start the season as a reliever at AA Reading, but he was quickly moved back into the rotation.  He was excellent in both roles and recently received a call up to AAA.  He has the potential to catch fire and really make an impact for the Phillies this season, and it is for that reason that I hope he gets the call.

However, I still think the Phillies need to make a trade.  And I still think the Phillies should go for broke with this one.  They need an impact starter to pair with Cole Hamels and try to win another World Series during this window we have while all of our core players are in their prime.  Here is a look at some possibilities:

• Roy Halladay: Alright, so this is wishful thinking.  The Phillies probably aren’t getting Halladay, and neither is anyone else, for that matter.  I just put him at the top of the list because I have a massive man crush on the Doc.  I would trade anyone in the system for him, and probably anyone of the active roster.  Maybe not Chase Utley.  But seriously, this guy is good.  And now that the Blue Jays have lost 9 in a row and are in a division with the Red Sox and Yankees…it’s probably still not going to happen.  But I’m just saying…
• Jake Peavy: I covered Peavy at length here and there isn’t a need to rehash it.  The big question is whether or not he would come to Philly.  If he would, I’d do just about anything to get him.
• Roy Oswalt: Oswalt turns 32 this season and his numbers are on the decline.  A change of scenery could perk him up, but his contract ($14 million this year, $31 million for 2010-11) is probably too hefty to take a chance.  The package required to get him would have to be just as good or better than the one for Peavy, but he might not be the ace he once was.  His owner may not want to trade him either.  Unless he can be had at a discount (and I doubt he can), I’d pass.
• Cliff Lee: Lee is signed for just $5.75 million this season and has an $8 million dollar club option for next season, so his contract is good.  But like Oswalt, he would command a premium and the Indians may prefer to wait until the offseason to move him if they even want to move him at all.  Plus, he would give the Phillies 4 lefties in the rotation, which is probably too many.  Pass.
• Erik Bedard: Bedard is intriguing for two reasons: First, he is a strikeout pitcher.  The Phillies don’t really have one of those on thier staff.  Getting strikeouts could be a huge advantage at Citizen’s Bank Park.  Second, his price might not be as high as the others listed above.  Seattle would still require 2-3 decent prospects for Bedard, but he might not level the farm system like Peavy would.  However, Bedard is also a lefty, and will more than likely be a short term rental as he will be a free agent after the season.  Given the Phillies’ hesitancy to give pitchers contracts of longer than 3 years, it is unlikely that he would be resigned.  Also, there are questions about how his surly demeanor would play in Philadelphia.  I’m not sure about Bedard.
• Aaron Harang: At age 31, I think Harang would be the perfect fit behind Cole Hamels in the rotation for the next few seasons.  He might not be an ace like some of the others on this list, but he is a solid #2 who eats innings and get strikeouts.  He dealt with some arm issues last season which is a cause for concern, but he is back to putting up his normal numbers this season.  The cost to acquire him would likely be moderate, but the question is whether Cincinnati would actually trade him.  The Reds are sticking around in the NL Central despite some injuries, and trading Harang would not help their cause.  If the Reds make him available, however, I think the Phillies should jump all over him.
• Brad Penny: I mention Penny here because he could be available on the cheap.  The Red Sox need to trade him to make room for John Smoltz and Clay Buchholz, and it might not take much more than one solid prospect to get him.  Penny’s numbers in Boston are not great this year, and he is coming of an injury-plagued 2008, but he is just a year and a half removed from going 16-4 with a 3.08 ERA in LA.  If the cost is low, a trade back to the National League could really help Penny.

Those are the guys that I think have the potential to make a major impact on the Phillies this season.  Names such as Jason Marquis, Jarrod Washburn, Doug Davis, and Jon Garland are possibilities as well, but I don’t think we are winning a World Series if adding one of those guys is the only move we make.  If the Phillies are serious about repeating this season, they need to add a top of the rotation caliber starting pitcher, and they probably need to do it soon.

There’s a saying about major league baseball teams that goes something like this: April and May are for figuring out what you have, June and July are for getting what you need, and August and September are for making your push.  But yesterday’s news that the Padres and White Sox had agreed on a Jake Peavy deal, and then the news that Peavy (armed with a complete no trade clause) rejected said deal got me all hot and bothered.  Bothered because it stepped all over my what we have/what we need post that I had planned for the end of the month (surprise! we need starting pitching) and hot because, well, Jake Peavy’s available!  Wait, did that last part sound, you know…let’s just move on.

So we know that the Phillies need starting pitching.  And Peavy is probably the best of what could be available during the season.  We also know that the market for Peavy could be severely limited both in terms of price (in prospects and dollars) and the pitcher’s preferences (west coast, National League, contending team).  The aborted Peavy-to-Chicago deal brought a few important things to light.  First, we know what the Padres want: pitching, pitching, and possibly some pitching.  And who could blame them, really?  Have you seen their staff?  Beyond Peavy,  starter Chris Young, and closer Heath Bell, I’m not sure they have anyone else who deserves to be on a major league roster.  Second, we know that Peavy is serious about using his no-trade clause if he is not dealt to a team of his liking.  The Phillies meet some, but not all of his criteria so it would be interesting to see if he would actually accept a deal to Philadelphia.  My heart says that he would, but it wasn’t that long ago that my heart told me to go to seminary and enter the ministry, so it turns out that my heart speaks with all the conviction of a hobo with a 40.  What I’m trying to say is, um, I don’t know.

The Phillies’ m.o. in recent years has been to make smaller, complimentary deals around their nucleus rather than large, headline grabbing deals that could potentially disrupt their core or deplete their farm system.  But if the Phillies would ever deviate from that philosophy, now would be as good a time as any to do so.  All of the team’s core players are in their late 20’s or early 30’s, which means that they probably have a 3-4 year window to win as many titles as possible before some tough decisions have to be made.  Peavy would fit perfectly in that window as he is just 27 years old and signed through 2012 (with a $22 million dollar club option for 2013).  I am in favor of trading whatever needs to be traded from the minor league system to acquire Peavy.  The farm is deeper than it has been in years, but do the Phillies have enough pitching to entice the Padres?  Top prospect Carlos Carrasco would surely have to be included in any deal.  But much of the rest of what the Phillies could possibly offer is 2-3 years away from the big leagues.  Working in the Phillies favor in this regard is the limited number of teams that Peavy would accept a trade to and the fact that San Diego almost certainly will trade Peavy this season.  The Padres may have to take what they can get.

But if the Phillies and Padres could agree on a deal, would Peavy accept?  Well, the Phillies are in the National League  and definitely give him a good chance to win over the next few seasons, so maybe.  But it is unclear whether pitching in Philadelphia (both because of the ballpark and because it is an east coast city) would appeal to Peavy.  However, if the Phillies have the best offer at the deadline and his choices are between staying with a San Diego club that is out of the race and clearly wants to move him or a contending Philadelphia team with a shot to repeat as World Champions, which would he choose?  That is a scenario that might just work in the Phillies’ favor.

With all of that being said, however, if I am the Phillies there are two things that would make me balk at acquiring Peavy.  These aren’t necessarily deal breakers, just things that would make me think twice.  I wouldn’t want to pick up his $22 million dollar option for 2013 (apparently neither did the Sox, which may be a reason why Peavy is still a Padre) and I wouldn’t want to trade JA Happ.  Or, to be more specific, I wouldn’t want to trade Happ AND Carrasco.  See, the only way the Phillies could probably afford Peavy’s contract (he makes $11 million this year and then $52 million for ‘10-’12) is by letting Brett Myers leave as a free agent after this season.  That is not something I am opposed to at all, but it would leave us with a 2010 rotation of Hamels, Peavy, Blanton, and Moyer.  The team would likely want to go cheap to fill that 5th spot and obviously Happ would be perfect.  I would be fine to plug in someone like Kyle Kendrick for a while if I knew Carrasco was on the way.  If not, I’m not sure I like that scenario.

The following is the deal that I would propose to San Diego for Jake Peavy, with the view that I would try to win as many World Series titles as I could for the next 3-4 years before likely having to rebuild:

• Carlos Carrasco: He is our top prospect and has a higher ceiling than JA Happ.  If they would prefer Happ because he could pitch for them right away, I would make the switch.  I would have a hard time dealing both, however.
• Lou Marson: I know it appears the Padres want pitching, but have you seen the rest of their roster?  They need help all over.  Marson is a valuable commodity.  He is a young catcher who is just about ready for the major leagues.  He could probably start for San Diego right now.  I would be okay with trading him because I prefer a veteran catcher for a contending club like we have now, and because Travis D’Arnaud is in the system and could be ready by the time our World Series window closes and we need to rebuild.
• Kyle Drabek: He is a few years away, but he is probably our second highest rated pitching prospect.  Including Drabek would mean that we offered San Diego 3 of our top 5 prospects.  It would be impossible to say that we didn’t make a serious offer.
• Kyle Kendrick: I’m not saying he’s good, but I’m saying he could probably pitch for the Padres right now.  And to be fair, it was only a year ago that Kendrick was a solid starter for a contending ball club.  The change of scenery might be good for Kyle, as well.

So what do you think?  Carrasco, Marson, Drabek and Kendrick for Jake Peavy.  Too much?  Too little?  Would the Padres accept?  Would it work for the Phillies?  I’d love to hear what you have to say about it.

In a somewhat surprising move (considering the money they had to swallow), the Phillies today released Geoff Jenkins.  The team opted to keep Matt Stairs instead of Jenkins as a lefty bat off the bench (we also have Greg Dobbs in that role).  It’s an interesting decision in that the Phillies ate about $7 million more in salary to release Jenkins, when I’m not sure Stairs is a clear upgrade.  Phillies fans think more fondly of Stairs thanks to his mammoth home run in the NLCS in Los Angeles last year, while Jenkins struggled in a platoon role early in the season and eventually lost his job to Jayson Werth after getting hurt in August.  I thought Jenkins could have been a decent candidate for a bounce back season this year in a limited role.  It seemed like he was pressing a bit early last year after changing teams for the first time in his career.  But in the end the Phillies thought that Stairs was better suited for the bench role and Jenkins ended up the victim of a numbers crunch as the team simply had more left handed bats than they could use.  It was nice to see the team make a decision based solely on who they felt  gave them the best chance to win everyday, rather than who was making more money.  This hasn’t always been the case with the Phillies.  With the release of Adam Eaton and now Jenkins (eating about $17 million in the process), it is clear that the team is committed to putting the best team on the field in 2009

The Jenkins decision gets even more interesting, however, with the news that the Phillies have been in touch with Gary Sheffield.  Sheffield was released by the Detroit Tigers earlier in the day.  I have admired Sheff from afar for years, but I am afraid that Sheff is not the same guy the Phillies have been talking to.  I’m not sure 2009 Gary Sheffield is a very good fit for the 2009 Phils.  First, it is unclear if he can even still hit enough to be worth the roster spot.  Sheffield was released after having a very poor spring, and he batted just .225 last season, though he did hit 19 HRs.  But that was as a DH, and it is unclear whether he can still play the field at all.  Second, Sheffield is notoriously difficult to deal with and I’m not sure that it is worth it to bring his attitude into what is otherwise a great Phillies clubhouse.  This could be exacerbated by the fact that if he joins the Phillies it will be in a limited role, something he has bristled at in the past.  Sheffield has played for 7 different teams in his career and worn out his welcome at just about every stop.  His production is no longer at a level where it makes it worth the risk that he could ruin team chemistry.  In the coming days there should be at least a few productive veterans who will be released and could fill the role that Sheffield would fill for us without the baggage.  If nobody shakes loose who seems interesting, Miguel Cairo could easily fill the final bench spot.  Let’s hope the Phillies pass on Sheffield.

The Phillies acquired lefty reliever Jack Taschner in exchange for catcher Ronny Paulino.  This trade is essentially two separate rumors/reports coming to fruition at one fell swoop.  The Phillies had long been reported to have interest in Taschner, dating back to last season when they nearly acquired him at the trade deadline before opting for Scott Eyre.  Paulino, meanwhile, had a poor showing this spring for the Phillies and rumors that he was being shopped around the league have popped up in recent days.

Taschner presumably will be the second lefty out of the pen for the Phillies, and his addition to the roster likely eliminates the possibility of any bullpen jobs being available for non-roster players such as Gary Majewski.  Taschner has never been terribly effective in his 4 big league seasons (his career ERA is 5.01), but the worse case scenario for him could be that he gets out lefties at a reasonably effective clip for two months until JC Romero returns.  (Actually I guess the worst case is that he blows up in April and costs us a few games before being released, but whatever.)  He was released from San Francisco after bouts of wildness this spring, which he attributed to working on a new two-seamer that got away from him at times, but choosing to stick with it in the belief  he had some security with a recently signed guaranteed contract.  If this is true and he can indeed find a way to harness that two-seamer, he could be a very solid addition for us this year.

Further, this trade also brings the roster into clearer focus.  It would appear that the bullpen is set, with Lidge, Madson, Eyre, Durbin, Condrey, now Taschner, and likely Chan Ho Park.  I say likely, because you would think that the acquisition of a righty for the bullpen would signal the intent to keep JA Happ in the rotation.  Happ has pitched too well this spring to be sent down to AAA, and I’m sure the Phillies prefer Park’s experience in the bullpen to Happ.  I’m on record as preferring Chan Ho for the 5th starter spot, but it turns out the Phillies apparently don’t listen to my advice about roster moves.  In any case, there really isn’t a bad move to be made.

This trade also confirms that Chris Coste will indeed be the backup catcher this season.  And now that it looks like the team will keep 12 pitchers to start the year, that means there will only be five bench spots.  I can’t imagine the team will keep both Jenkins and Matty Stairs on the bench, especially with so many lefties now in the starting lineup.  My guess is that the team will try unsuccessfully to trade Jenkins before releasing Stairs and keeping Miguel Cairo for the final bench spot.

Stories have surfaced once again today about whether or not the Phillies will sign lefty reliever Will Ohman.  According to reports, GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. has said that he is interested in adding another arm to the bullpen at a “modest” price.  It is unclear exactly what price would be considered “modest” and if Ohman is willing to pitch for this price, but since the rumors have surfaced on several occasions now, I figure I’d address them.

Bullpens in general have a tendency to be inconsistent from year to year, so it stands to reason that adding as much inventory to the pen as possible and seeing who emerges makes a lot of sense.  But how would Ohman fit in Philadelphia?  Is he better than what we already have?

Considering the fact that JC Romero is suspended until June 1st, it appears that Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Scott Eyre, Chad Durbin, Chan Ho Park (unless he wins the 5th starter’s job) and Clay Condrey are good bets to make the Opening Day roster, leaving one spot open until Romero returns.  There are a number of arms in camp competing to fill that spot, but none (save for JA Happ, who may or may not be the 5th starter and may or may not be successful in the bullpen) have the potential to contribute as much as Ohman could.

Ohman had a terrific season for Atlanta last season, posting a 3.68 ERA and holding lefties to a .200 avg.  He could take some of the pressure off of Scott Eyre for the first two months of the season, as Eyre probably doesn’t have the set-up man potential that JC Romero has.  It could get even better once Romero returns, when Ohman could take Condrey’s spot in the bullpen.  Condery pitched pretty well for the Phillies last season, but his numbers are deceiving.  Though he had a 3.26 ERA, opponents hit .302 off of him, which could mean he was more lucky than good.  Right-handers hit for a higher average off of Condrey than they did off of Ohman (even though Ohman is a lefty), and Ohman struck out more hitters in fewer innings than Condrey last year.  Signing Ohman would give us another lefty to cover us in case of injury, provide Charlie Manuel with more options, and improve a potential trouble spot this season in Clay Condrey.  If the price is right, I say lets get us some Will Ohman.