Posted on 04 April 2009 by Mike
Why are they interesting? Um, have you seen the name of this site? World Champions. World F*cking Champions! I’ll do my best to be objective, but I truly think we can repeat.
Why could they win? They might have the best lineup in baseball. By my count, 6 of the 7 returning regulars from last season can reasonably expect to improve on their ‘08 numbers (Shane Victorino is the only exception). Nobody played over their heads last year. They brought just about everyone back from a team that won a World Series. That is a good thing. Cole Hamels established himself as an ace in last season’s playoffs. Brett Myers is in a walk year and could be due for a big season. The rotation and bullpen are solid. The organization is deeper than it has been in recent years. If there are holes, they should be able to fill from within or have the assets to make a trade. They are good defensively up the middle with Carlos Ruiz at catcher, Jimmy Rollins at short, Chase Utley at second, and Victorino in center. Pedro Feliz is a very good third baseman, and Werth is good in right.
Why won’t they? Hamels pitched 262.1 innings last year and had some arm trouble this spring. If he is out for an extended period, the Phillies are sunk. Bullpens can be inconsistent from year to year, and a lot of the Phillies’ relievers pitched over their heads last year. Jamie Moyer is 46 and is a question mark for that reason alone. They might be too left handed in the lineup, with Raul Ibanez replacing Pat Burrell. Utley had hip surgery in the offseason. He seems to be just fine, but if something happens he is tough to replace.
Wins O/U (finish): 88.5 OVER (1st, NL East, win World Series)
Posted on 04 April 2009 by Mike
Why are they interesting? I hate them. I hate them so, so much. I hate every single member of their team. It will be impossible for me to write this preview with anything resembling objectivity.
Why they could win? I hate to admit this, but during the World Baseball Classic I started to think that maybe David Wright isn’t such a bad guy. Ugh. I need a shower. They brought in K-Rod and JJ Putz to shore up the bullpen. They have Johan Santana.
Why won’t they? They are chokers. They have no heart. Their clubhouse is full of arrogant jackasses. The rotation after Santana is completely unimpressive. The bullpen beyond K-Rod and Putz is largely the same cast from last year. Putz is coming off an injury. K-Rod’s stuff has diminished some and he could be due for arm troubles. Why do you think the Angels were content to let the all-time saves leader go? If you think K-Rod is only 27, I don’t know what to tell you. Congratulations on Gary Sheffield, by the way.
Wins O/U (finish): 89.5 UNDER (2nd, NL East, lose in NLDS)
Posted on 04 April 2009 by Mike
Why are they interesting? Scouting. The Marlins have one of the lowest payrolls in baseball year in and year out, yet they always find a way to compete. They can trade good players for guys no one’s ever heard of, and the new players always seem to contribute in a year or two. If the Marlins acquire someone, I give them the benefit of the doubt. It is for this reason that I am convinced that Ronny Paulino will hit .320 for Florida this year.
Why could they win? They probably have the best rotation in the division. Ricky Nolasco could be a dark horse for the NL Cy Young. If Emilio Bonifacio wins the 3rd base job, the top of the order of Cameron Maybin, Bonafacio, and Hanley Ramirez is scary. Scary fast, anyway. Hitting 3rd, Ramirez could be the NL MVP.
Why won’t they? The problems for the Marlins have been the same for the last few years: The bullpen and defense. They traded closer Kevin Gregg to the Cubs in the offseason, and his prospective successor, Matt Lindstrom, hurt himself in the World Baseball Classic. Ramirez and Dan Uggla might be the worst defensive middle infield in baseball. Ramirez has good range, but boots too many balls and sails too many throws. Dan Uggla should just be moved from 2nd. Cameron Maybin has been hyped as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate, but his swing is long. He might strike out too much. At age 22, he may be asked to do too much too soon.
Wins O/U (finish): 75.5 OVER (3rd, NL East)
Posted on 04 April 2009 by Mike
Why are they interesting? After getting away from it in recent seasons, the Braves did their damnedest this winter to reestablish their identity: strong starting pitching. After missing out on Jake Peavy and AJ Burnett, they settled for overpaying for Derek Lowe, signing Japanese pitcher Kenshin Kawakami, trading for Javier Vazquez, and taking a chance on Tom Glavine. While the rotation is much improved over last season, it is probably not good enough for them to overtake the Mets, Phillies, or even the Marlins in ‘09.
Why could they win? The rotation is solid if unspectacular. If Vazquez benefits from the move to the NL and Jair Jurrjens builds on his breakout season in ‘08, the Braves could hang around. Brian McCann is probably the best catcher in the National League. Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar form a very good offensive middle infield. The setup guys could be solid.
Why won’t they? If the rotation doesn’t perform better than expected, they are sunk. They have no true closer. Chipper Jones will be 37 in April, and his best days are probably behind him. Even if Jeff Francouer bounces back, the outfield is still bad. Casey Kotchman is a good defensive first baseman but will probably never hit for enough power. Kelly Johnson is a terrible defensive second baseman. They’d be better off moving him to left. Outside of Tommy Hanson, they don’t have much help on the way from the minors. This team is two or three injuries away from finishing in last place.
Wins O/U (finish): 84.5 UNDER (4th, NL East)
Posted on 04 April 2009 by Mike
Why are they interesting? Unless they’re crazy, the Nationals will select Stephen Strasburg with the #1 pick in the amateur draft in June. If the scouts are to be believed, Strasburg has Nintendo stuff, reaching 100 mph on his fastball with a slider that could be even better. If he is as good as he is supposed to be, Strasburg could be in Washington by opening day 2010, if not sooner. He could be the ace they sorely need.
Why could they win? They got rid of Jim Bowden, whose best attribute seemed to be acquiring corner outfield/1st base types and paying prospects who lied about their age. I enjoyed Adam Dunn’s work in the World Baseball Classic. I hope he does well for himself. Ryan Zimmerman needs to have the breakout season everyone has predicted for him. With Dunn protecting him, he just might do it this year. Scott Olsen and Daniel Cabrera were decent under the radar acquisitions.
Why won’t they? They don’t have enough pitching. They starters are bad, the bullpen is worse. They don’t really have a guy in the lineup that scares you. There are too many corner outfielders. Lastings Milledge isn’t really a centerfielder. This team needs to be building toward something, but they don’t have a whole lot to build with. There aren’t a lot of reinforcements on the farm.
Wins O/U (finish): 71.5 UNDER (5th, NL East)
Posted on 04 April 2009 by Mike
Why are they interesting? For the same reason a car crash is interesting. The Pirates have been comically mismanaged for nearly two decades. It appears that they may finally be headed in the right direction on the management front, but they are still at least 5 years away from contending. At least. They have nothing.
Why could they win? They can’t. But Ryan Doumit is one of the best hitting catchers in the league. Andrew McCutchen is a prospect they seem excited about. Matt Capps is a good closer.
Why won’t they? The four “promising” starters they are laying their future on (Snell, Maholm, Gorzelanny, and Duke) all have #3 ceilings. That’s not going to work. They have almost nothing in the farm system, especially in the way of pitching. Nate McLouth is overrated and got a contract extension based on one good month last year. Nyjer Morgan. Jack Wilson. Freddy Sanchez. Adam LaRoche in the first half. This is depressing. Let’s stop here.
Wins O/U (finish): 67.5 UNDER (6th, NL Central)
Posted on 04 April 2009 by Mike
Why are they interesting? It doesn’t look like they will contend this year. The farm system is barren and they need to shake things up a bit. Could they trade Roy Oswalt? Between Oswalt, Jake Peavy, and Roy Halladay, there could be some aces on the market come July. Guys like Miguel Tejada and Carlos Lee could also find themselves in different uniforms by the end of the season.
Why could they win? Oswalt could carry them. Wandy Rodriguez could remember how to pitch away from home. They can hit. Lee and Tejada are perfect for that ballpark. Pudge could find a time machine. I like Jeff Keppinger, though I have no good reason why.
Why won’t they? The pitching, beyond Oswalt, is really bad. Michael Bourn is projected to hit 1st or 2nd. He should be hitting 8th. Better yet, he should be a 5th outfielder. Their good players are getting old, and they don’t have enough of them. Hunter Pence is the only everyday starter on the right side of his prime.
Wins O/U (finish): 73.5 OVER (5th NL Central)
Posted on 04 April 2009 by Mike
Why are they interesting? The most interesting thing about the Brewers is whether they will be able to build on the success of last season. They have some nice prospects in Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar that could allow them to trade JJ Hardy and Prince Fielder for the pitching they will need to make it back to the playoffs. They’ve got a core of guys who can hit, but they probably don’t have enough pitching to make the playoffs. They will need to make some tough decisions in the wake of losing CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets in order to continue the success they has last season.
Why could they win? They can hit. Hardy-Braun-Fielder-Hart form a terrific 2-5 in the order. They have some good depth in the minor leagues. Yovanni Gallardo could emerge as an ace. The rest of the starters are veterans who could eat innings.
Why won’t they? The losses of Sheets and Sabathia are just too much to overcome. They have to many back-end type starters, and not enough 1’s and 2’s. The bullpen is not very good. They signed Trevor Hoffman, but he is well past his prime and will start the season on the DL. Rickie Weeks needs to take a step forward this year, but may not have the plate discipline to do so. The infield defense is not very good.
Wins O/U (finish): 80.5 UNDER (4th NL Central)
Posted on 04 April 2009 by Mike
Why are they interesting? Chris Carpenter. If he can return to Cy Young form (or close), the Cardinals could win the division. They have the offense, and the rotation is one more good guy away. A guy like Carpenter.
Why could they win? Tony LaRussa just might have a few tricks up his sleeve. This team could definitely over-achieve. If Carpenter is all the way back, the rotation is good with Lohse, Wainwright, or Wellemeyer. They can hit. Any team with Albert Pujols can hit. They have a ton of guys who can hit for power.
Why wont they? Carpenter is obviously a question mark. The bullpen could be shaky. Skip Schumaker is struggling with the transition to 2B. Troy Glaus is going to start the season on the DL. The defense isn’t great. It’s a make or break year for Khalil Greene at shortstop. I’m guessing break.
Wins O/U (finish): 82.5 OVER (3rd, NL Central)
Posted on 04 April 2009 by Mike
Why are they interesting? After more than a decade of futility, the Reds look like they could finally be ready to contend. They have the best rotation in the division and some good young hitters. If the Cubs falter in any way, the Reds could steal the NL Central.
Why could they win? The rotation is great. Edinson Volquez is an ace and Johnny Cueto could break out. They have two solid vets in Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang, who is only a season away from being a #1B type starter. Micah Owings is penciled in as the 5th starter, and if he falters Homer Bailey is waiting in the wings. Owings is fun because he hits as well or better than he pitches, and Dusty Baker has already said he will use him to pinch hit. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, and Jay Bruce are a solid 3-4-5 in the lineup. The bullpen has some reliable veterans.
Why won’t they? They are young and probably still a year away. After a year for them to mature and the Cubs to regress, they could win the division in 2010. Harang was hurt last year and may not return to form. Arroyo pitches through carpal tunnel. Willy Taveras and Alex Gonzalez are hitting at the top of the lineup. Dusty Baker has a reputation as a player’s manager, but his game strategy and player evaluation (Corey Patterson last year, Taveras this year) are not good. If the Reds struggle out of the gate, he could be on the hot seat. That wouldn’t be a bad thing.
Wins O/U (finish): 78.5 OVER (2nd, NL Central)