Today is the Phillies’ final off day until the season starts and things are starting to come into focus a little bit as far as what the team will look like come Opening Night.  I’ve been gallivanting off watching the World Baseball Classic and March Madness over the last few weeks, so it’s time to focus my attention back on the Phillies.  The regular season starts in 10 days.  Here are my thoughts on the state of the team right now.

• I don’t think the Cole Hamels thing will be a big deal, unless it is… Everything seems fine with Cole and his inflamed elbow, and he pitched again without any pain.  It looks like he probably won’t start opening day, but may end up starting on April 10, which means he basically won’t miss any starts.  I’m not sure how many Phillies fans are with me on this, but I’m secretly terrified.  We’re not repeating without a healthy Hamels.  We’re just not.  And the track record for young pitchers who exponentially increase their innings from one season to the next without being injured or ineffective or both the following season is not good.  I don’t mean to be alarmist about this, and all of the reports are good.  But I wouldn’t be terribly opposed to Hamels starting the season on the DL and coming back somewhere around April 20th.  At the very least I wouldn’t mind seeing Charlie Manuel go with 5 starters right out of the gate, even though we technically wouldn’t need a 5th starter until April 20th.  The more innings we can save on Cole’s arm (and Jamie Moyer, while we’re at it) the better.
• The 5th starter race is getting interesting. Kyle Kendrick got sent down to the minors and Carlos Carrasco still clearly could use some more seasoning, so it is now a two horse race between JA Happ and Chan Ho Park.  Both have been impressive this spring, which will make for an interesting decision for the Phillies front office.  My heart is still with Chan Ho because I love his story (and the changeup he’s learned from Jamie Moyer), but everything I hear is that the team will go with Happ.  I guess this makes sense, as they have more invested in Happ as a prospect and Park is a veteran on a one year deal who pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen last season.  With the way both of these guys have pitched I don’t think they can go wrong, but I’m still hoping for Chan Ho.
• The final bench/bullpen spot is now probably just the final roster spot. That is to say, how the bottom of the roster shakes out will probably largely depend on whether the team decides to keep 11 or 12 pitchers and who wins the 5th starter job.  If they go with 11 pitchers to start the year, Miguel Cairo will probably make the team.  Marcus Giles and John Mayberry have kind of crapped out of late, and Jason Donald and Lou Marson were both sent to the minors.  Pablo Ozuna has hit very well this spring, but for some reason the team just doesn’t seem that into him.  I can’t say I blame them; Ozuna has had 200 ABs in a season just once in his career, and that was 4 years ago.  He’s not as versatile as Cairo and doesn’t have the major league track record.  If the Phillies go with 12 pitchers, Gary Majewski has a very good chance to make the team, though Dave Borkowski and Mike Koplove have made decent cases for themselves as well.
• It looks like Chris Coste has dodged another bullet. Coste may be the favorite for the backup catcher spot under the “devil you know” clause.  Both he and Ronny Paulino have not been very good this spring, with Paulino looking to be a terrible defender.  At least Coste has some familiarity with the staff and is a fan favorite.  With Lou Marson set to be the full time catcher in Lehigh Valley in ‘09, there doesn’t appear to be a spot in the organization for Paulino. He could be traded or released.

Sometimes as a fan you can get so caught up in what’s happening on the field, judging players on everything from how they hit with two strikes to perceived notions of who cares and who doesn’t, that you sometimes forget about the players as people with lives outside of baseball.  Today, David Murphy of the Daily News wrote a terrific story about Clay Condrey and his relationship with his father that gave me some perspective.  I’ve written already that I don’t think Condrey and his numbers from last year are for real and I wouldn’t mind seeing someone else take his job this spring.  But after reading a story like that and learning all it took for him to make it to where it is today, it will be extremely difficult not to root for the guy going forward.

The other story that I am really intrigued by this spring (which I’ve read in several different places) is that of Chan Ho Park and his quest to become our 5th starter.  Many guys in baseball demand a role for selfish reasons, but Park is pushing hard to start instead of relieve for his homeland, South Korea.  Park is a national hero in Korea, and when he announced that he would not pitch for his country in the WBC this year, he did so with tears in his eyes.  In 1998, when Chan Ho was in his prime, the Korean economy was struggling.  When Park would pitch every 5th day for the Los Angeles Dodgers, it was an opportunity for his countrymen to put their problems on the back burner for about 3 hours and watch one of their own pitch on the highest level.  Now, with much of the world (including South Korea) facing difficult economic times, Park would like to provide that same diversion for his people every 5th day once again.  Philadelphia was the only club that would provide Park the opportunity to compete for a starting job this offseason after pitching well in a long relief role last year in LA.  It is for this reason that I have written that I think Park could have a very good year for us as a starter, and I still hope he wins the spot.  Right now, it looks like a two man race between him and JA Happ (Kyle Kendrick pitched poorly again today), so we’ll have to see how things shake out over the next few weeks.

With Spring Training extended because of the World Baseball Classic, it’ s safe to say it is still early in Phillies camp, and a lot can change between now and April 5.  But with that said, let’s take another look at the stories in Clearwater.

• The 5th starter job may be a two man race. Chan Ho Park and JA Happ have pitched very well in their outings since Rich Dubee declared that he would officially begin evaluating the competition.  Kyle Kendrick still has not sufficiently developed the secondary pitches to compliment his sinker and does not appear poised on the mound.  He could be headed for the minors or even out of the organization.  Carlos Carrasco appears to be in need of more seasoning as well.
• A few non-roster relievers are pitching like they want a spot. Gary Majewski appears to be the best of the bunch, and probably has the best chance to make the roster as he is left-handed.  He’s only 29 and just 2 seasons (and an arm injury, unfortunately) removed from being a very effective reliever for Washington.  Dave Borkowski, Robert Mosebach, and Mike Koplove all look good as well.
• John Mayberry continues to hit. If he keeps it up, he has to make this team.  We can use Matt Stairs or Geoff Jenkins, we don’t need both.
• We’ve heard this song before, but Ryan Howard looks good this spring. Now that his money issues are out of the way, I am optimistic that he doesn’t murder us with a slow start and finishes with a batting average around .275
• Some of the injured guys get back tomorrow. Pedro Feliz, Brad Lidge, and Chad Durbin could all see some action Wednesday, and Chris Coste played two innings yesterday.  No word on when we will see Chase Utley this spring, but the team is still thinking he’ll be in the lineup Opening Day.  Carlos Ruiz is back from the WBC tomorrow, and his neck should be fine.

The Phillies are off today, after just about a week of playing exhibition games.  So what can we learn after 6 spring games, and a 3-3 record?  Well, nothing really.  But it doesn’t stop me from having a few thoughts about the team so far…

• The advantage for the fifth starter spot goes to…nobody just yet. JA Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Carlos Carrasco, and Chan Ho Park have all pitched good-but-not-great in their first few innings of the spring.  I still think that if everyone pitches respectably but nobody runs away with the job, Kyle Kendrick will be the fifth starter.
• I know one guy who won’t be the fifth starter… Adam Eaton.  The Phillies decided not to waste their time showcasing him this spring in hopes of a trade, and just ate the remaining $9 million on his contract.  He then signed with Baltimore.  Of course, signing with an American League team eliminated the one strength Eaton had: He wasn’t a bad hitting pitcher.  Good riddance.
• This John Mayberry kid looks pretty good. Could the righty outfielder come out of nowhere to make the team a la Greg Dobbs two years ago?  The guy has a 1.097 OPS in 17 at-bats so far this spring.  Not too shabby.  He would be the right-handed power option off the bench that we sorely need, and he looks good enough in the outfield to be a double-switch candidate.
• Giles and Cairo look pretty good as well. As much as I love Matt Stairs for his NLCS homer, the team might be better served for the long haul by eating the $1 million on his contract (a trade is probably unlikely in this economy) and carrying either Giles, Cairo, or Mayberry in his spot.  This assumes that both Feliz and Utley will be ready to go on Opening Day (which seems more and more likely) and it becomes an either/or situation.  We already have two lefty power guys off the bench who do the same things as Stairs.  It would give Charlie Manuel more late game options to carry a righty who can do a few things like Giles or Mayberry.
• Call me crazy, but I like the vibe this year. The team spent a lot of money to bring almost everyone back and make another run at the championship.  The fans have flocked to Clearwater and will likely sell out just about every regular season game, economy be damned.  The players seem like they enjoyed the greater amount of exposure they received in the offseason, but were not overwhelmed by it.  The clubhouse seems loose, like nobody feels the pressure to repeat.  Which is exactly why I think they just might.