You can find Part 1 on the lineup and bench here.
Rotation
Who’s back in 2010? In the easiest decision any GM will have to make this winter, Ruben Amaro exercised the 2010 option on Cliff Lee. Cole Hamels. Joe Blanton (arbitration eligible). JA Happ. Kyle Kendrick is around if the Phillies feel like using him.
Who’s up in the air? Pedro Martinez. Jamie Moyer is under contract, but had surgery on his groin and abdominal muscle. He’ll be 47. He was removed from the rotation before he got hurt. I’ll let you do the math on that one.
Things to consider: Cole Hamels had a disappointing year in 2010. I think a winter spent keeping a low profile (and maybe working on his curveball) will be good for his mental health, and the time off will be good for his arm as well after a huge jump in innings pitched from 2007 to 2008. His luck will improve. I wonder about his ceiling going forward, but I think that his return to something resembling his ‘08 form is extremely important for the Phillies to have success in ‘10. I would not trade Cole Hamels, not even for Roy Halladay. I don’t think. Actually, let me think about that one and get back to you. But with that being said, I would love for the Phillies to trade for Roy Halladay. Or sign John Lackey. An ace like one of those guys might seem unnecessary to those who feel that the Phillies biggest problems lie elsewhere, but assuming resources (in terms of prospects and money) are limited, I would rather the team acquire another big time starter to pair with Cliff Lee and spend less on other needs such as 3rd base and the bullpen. I feel very confident that the Phillies can win the NL East again in 2010 by maintaining something close to the status quo, but come playoff time a top 3 of Lee, Halladay or Lackey, and a hopefully improved Cole Hamels would be better than anything Chone Figgins, Jose Valverde, or whomever would contribute. It would also be a better top 3 than any other playoff team could likely throw out there and would put the Phillies in prime position to win 2 World Series titles in 3 years.
Of course, you can’t just go out and sign up a guy like Halladay or Lackey and call it a day. There is a price to pay. For Halladay, the cost would be in prospects. For Lackey it would be in the form of a long-term, big money contract. Sacrifices would likely have to be made on either front. If the Phillies decide to go after Lackey, they may need to either trade or decline to offer arbitration to Joe Blanton. Joe Blanton was one of my favorite Phillies in 2009, but if that’s what needs to be done to pay a guy like Lackey, I would support that. If they decide they’d rather trade for Roy Halladay, they may run into some of the same issues they faced in July in terms of the Toronto asking price and which players the Phillies consider “untouchable”. If the price is slightly less than it was in July (because the Blue Jays presumably have a smarter GM running things and Halladay is a half-year closer to free agency), Halladay may be the better option for the Phillies. If the Jays are willing to take a package lead by JA Happ and Michael Taylor or Domonic Brown, then Philly should jump all over that. If Toronto insists on Kyle Drabek again, odds are a deal won’t happen.
If the Phillies ultimately decide that Lackey and Halladay are not worth the price, heading into 2010 with a Lee/Hamels/Blanton/Happ rotation is not a bad option. Like they have for the last several years, the Phillies could always decide to acquire another starter in July if they feel they need one. There are many candidates for the 5th starter spot, including Kyle Kendrick, Kyle Drabek, Jamie Moyer, and perhaps even Pedro Martinez if he decides he wants to pitch another season. It seems like the best move would be to let one of those guys earn the spot and get another arm in July if needed rather than spend money on a veteran starter over the winter. If the Phillies acquire another starter, it should be an ace.
Bullpen
Who’s back in 2010? Brad Lidge. Ryan Madson. JC Romero.
Who’s up in the air? Brett Myers has been informed that he will not be offered a contract for 2010. Chan Ho Park is a free agent. So is Scott Eyre. Clay Condrey, Chad Durbin, and Tyler Walker are arbitration eligible.
Things to consider: Bullpens are notoriously inconsistent from year to year. Given that the Phillies relievers had a mostly down year last year, some turnover is probably in order. Scott Eyre is having surgery. If he makes it through that alright, he is worth bringing back. If Chan Ho Park is willing to return for similar money and in a similar role, that would be worth it as well. He may want another shot at starting, or a team might offer him a chance to close.
The big issue, however, is Brad Lidge. The Phillies are paying him $12 million for each of the next 2 seasons, so no matter how he performs the team is probably stuck with him. You’d have to imagine that Charlie Manuel will give him every opportunity to be the closer in ‘10. It’s not unreasonable that Lidge would regain something close to his ‘08 form in ‘10, as it appears that injuries hampered him throughout the season. However, it is important that the Phillies acquire somebody with closer experience should Lidge falter again. That may be difficult because a guy who can close would probably prefer to go to a team where he can actually be the closer. It’s interesting that the Phillies did not even consider bringing back Brett Myers, as he could have been a guy with the potential to close if Lidge faltered. He may not have wanted a set-up/middle relief role in the meantime, though. Octavio Dotel, Mike Gonzalez, JJ Putz (if healthy and the Mets stink is off him), Takashi Saito, and Rafael Soriano are all free agents who could be relatively cost-effective and help out the Phillies in 2010.
