I’m pretty sure that when William Shakespeare wrote that thing about the significance of the tales full of sound and fury he was talking about baseball’s winter meetings. Lots of talk and not a whole lot of action. But that’s fun, because when there isn’t any baseball on TV there isn’t a whole lot left to do but…talk. So talk we shall. Perhaps spread a rumor or two. See where the day takes us.
One thing that isn’t talk is that since the last time I checked in, the Phillies filled out their lineup and bench with moves that aren’t spectacular but definitely improve the team. Brian Schneider was signed to be the backup catcher, which was a great move. Schneider is an above average defender and can be just as good with the bat as Carlos Ruiz, assuming Chooch’s late season tear was just a hot streak and not a sign that he’s turned the corner as a hitter. Schneider is also a lefty and if he is able to stay healthy (a problem for him last year) and produce we could see something close to a platoon situation with Ruiz, probably for the benefit of all involved. The Phillies also signed lefty Ross Gload to round out their bench. Gload can play first base and the corner outfield positions, and should be an offensive upgrade on the man he replaces, Matt Stairs.
In addition to the bench upgrades, the Phillies signed Placido Polanco to be their everyday third baseman. Polanco was signed to a 3 year, $18 million dollar contract which seems to be a year too long for a 34 year old whose numbers are on the decline. It’s also worth noting that Polanco has not played 3B regularly since 2005, though that doesn’t necessarily concern me. He is a slap hitter who puts just about everything in play and does very little walking or striking out. The talk is that Polanco will hit second in the lineup, which makes sense, and Shane Victorino will slide down. If that is the case, the Phillies’ lineup and bench will look something like this:
- Jimmy Rollins, SS
- Placido Polanco, 3B
- Chase Utley, 2B
- Ryan Howard, 1B
- Jayson Werth, RF
- Raul Ibanez, LF
- Shane Victorino, CF
- Carlos Ruiz, C
- Pitcher
With Brian Schneider (L), Juan Castro (R), Greg Dobbs (L), Ross Gload (L), and Ben Francisco (R) off the bench. That looks a little bit better than what the Phillies trotted out in 2009. The one thing that intrigues me a little bit with that lineup is Victorino hitting in the 7-hole. I thought he did a respectable job hitting situationally out of the second spot last year. This year he ought to have more opportunities to drive in runs, and if there doesn’t happen to be anyone on base ahead of him he’ll be able to run a little more freely with the catcher coming up. But it doesn’t feel like a great fit down there with Shane. He feels, well, expendable. I’ll get to why in a minute. (Quick aside: Whether or not Victorino is a better leadoff hitter than Jimmy Rollins is a legitimate discussion, but I am not addressing it because I don’t think that there is any way Charlie Manuel removes Jimmy from the leadoff spot. We know Charlie well enough to know that he’s stubborn about this sort of thing.)
Now that the offensive side of things is taken care of, the Phillies are turning their attention to the pitching. Specifically it looks like the Phillies are trying to find themselves a back-of-the-bullpen arm, which makes sense. Of the ones that are still available I probably like Mike Gonzalez best, but you know what I would like more? Not giving a multi-year contract to a reliever. Any reliever. Unless the pitcher is Mariano Rivera (and really, he’s the only one) it makes almost no sense to to give significant money and more than one year to a relief pitcher, especially one who isn’t a closer. Even Francisco Rodriguez, one of the best closers in the game, signed for big money with the Mets and was mostly a disaster in the second half last year. Do I have to bring up Brad Lidge? JC Romero anyone? I like Ryan Madson, but would you bet your life that he performs consistently this season? That’s the thing about bullpens, you never really know what you’ll get from year to year. Pitchers become relievers for a reason: they are somehow flawed. Maybe they just have one good pitch. Maybe their stuff is below average. Maybe their stuff is good, but doesn’t hold up for more than an inning or two at a time. Look at Chan Ho Park. His stuff is really good, but only for one or two innings. Anyway, rather than throwing a bunch of money at a guy like Fernando Rodney, the better approach might be to let the market play out and let veterans with something to prove come in on one-year, incentive laden contracts. If they work out, great. If not we can find another guy who will. It looks like this might be the approach that the Phillies are taking, after seeing guys like Brandon Lyon and LaTroy Hawkins sign contracts they almost certainly won’t justify. If a bigger, more dynamic arm is needed, one can probably be acquired during the season. But you know what is a better approach to building a bullpen? Trade for Roy Halladay.
I know, I know. It’s a pipe dream. But is it? And no, I’m not saying get Halladay and put him in the bullpen. I’m saying that starting pitching covers a multitude of deficiencies and that if your top 3 are Halladay/Lee/Hamels, it almost doesn’t matter who is in the bullpen. Most of those guys won’t be used anyway. Not in situations that matter. I realize that we’ve been through this before and that some of you might be sick of the hype, but if you are I don’t know what to tell you. This is Roy Freaking Hallady. Roy Halladay! And if you liked that parade we had in 2008 and think you might like to do that again sometime, Roy Halladay is our best chance to make that happen.
There are drawbacks. The cost would be prohibitive in terms of prospects and dollars. Halladay is a free agent after the season is over. But there are also things working the Philadelphia’s favor. Halladay wants to go there. In fact, it might be on the top of his list. Halladay has a no-trade clause which, combined with the fact that Toronto cannot afford to keep him, means that the Jays have very little leverage and are forced to make a deal or risk losing him for a pair of draft picks after the 2010 season. There are a limited number of teams that can both afford him and have the talent to acquire him, and right now it looks like there are three other clubs who pull it off. The Yankees and Red Sox are lurking on the periphery and if they wanted him they could probably top whatever the Phillies could offer. But right now both clubs seem to have other priorities. The Angels are the other team in the hunt, but they do not appear to be as good a fit for Halladay as Philly would be.
Anaheim (or Los Angles or whatever) has reportedly offered Joe Saunders, Erick Aybar, and prospect Peter Bourjos, an offer that the Phillies could probably top. Ruben Amaro has steadfastly refused to give up top prospects Kyle Drabek and Domonic Brown, somewhat understandably. It is also a possibility that the Phillies would have to cut payroll in order to fit Halladay into their budget, and since it’s not my money to spend I’ll take their word for it on that. Joe Blanton seems like the most likely candidate to be moved if the need should arise, which wouldn’t leave a whole lot left for the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation. Again, with Halladay around that would matter a lot less. But Blanton is a pretty good pitcher in his own right, and if he is your 4th starter you are in pretty good shape.
So if payroll needs to be cut either way, and you don’t want to deal your top prospects, what can you do? Can you trade from the major league roster? I guess what I’m asking is, would the Blue Jays have any interest in Shane Victorino? Shane is under team control for two more years and eligible for arbitration. His salary would be more than a rebuilding team might want to pay, but if you look at their roster, Toronto is not completely rebuilding. They have Vernon Wells’ nearly unmovable contract on the books through 2014 (!) and a group of young veterans like Aaron Hill and Edwin Encarnacion with whom Victorino might fit in well. He fills more of a need than Erick Aybar (though it’s not the Angels fault that Toronto signed Alex Gonzalez to play shortstop for some reason) as Shane could play rightfield alongside Wells. Even if the Jays aren’t interested in Victorino somebody would be, and perhaps a three-team deal could be worked out with prospects going to Toronto. Victorino doesn’t quite fit the Phillies lineup anymore and with two years left before he becomes a free agent, his value is as high as it will get. If Michael Taylor isn’t ready yet he will be shortly, and a combination of Ben Francisco, Ross Gload, DeWayne Wise, John Mayberry and even Greg Dobbs could man the vacant outfield spot (with Werth moving to center where applicable) until he is. The Phillies would suffer a bit defensively (unless Wise was in center, then they’d suffer offensively), but again, Roy Halladay would be on the mound every 5 days. Roy Halladay.
Obviously Victorino alone isn’t going to get the deal done, so there will have to be others involved. JA Happ would almost certainly be involved and a look at his numbers suggests that he would be a better piece for the Blue Jays than Joe Saunders. His ERA, WHIP, K/9, K/BB, and BB/9 were all better than Saunders’ in 2009. Happ also has less service time, which would mean he is under team control for longer. Essentially, by just about every measure Happ would be a better fit for Toronto than Saunders.
But Victorino and Happ wouldn’t get it done either. This is where I would make something of a concession. I would trade Domonic Brown. Yes, every indication is that he will be a stud. But the Phillies have more organizational depth in the outfield than anywhere else. It would be a loss. The team might have to come up with some short-term solutions when Werth becomes a free agent after ‘10 and Raul Ibanez follows a year later. Anthony Gose will be on the way eventually, though that is beside the point. The Phillies have a World Series window that they need to take advantage of now. Roy Halladay gives them their best chance to do that.
Shane Victorino (or prospect(s) from a 3rd team), JA Happ, Domonic Brown, and give them another (non-Drabek) pitching prospect. I’m not privy to the discussions that Ruben Amaro is having with Alex Anthropolus, but that seems like a fair offer. If you disagree, my question to you would be this: what else is Toronto really going to get? Like I said before, the Yankees and Red Sox could probably beat it, but is either team so inclined? The Jays are running low on options. In the meantime, the Phillies keep Drabek and Taylor and end up with a Lee/Halladay/Hamels/Blanton/Kendrick or Moyer rotation with Drabek possibly on the way in July or August. If Taylor isn’t ready out of spring training, the Phillies could certainly replace most of his production by juggling the players mentioned above.
One final note on contracts. Halladay and Cliff Lee would both be free agents after the 2010 season. There is almost no way the Phillies could afford them both. That’s fine. What’s the rush? Both guys are ultra competitive and winning is their top priority. Neither is a sulker or a headcase. Let them sort it out during the season. They’ll both pitch their asses off going for a ring and a monster contract. After the season is over, the Phillies can pick the one they want to sign. They could even play them off of each other to get the best deal. I fail to see a down side here.
All I’m saying it that if the Phillies are serious about getting back to the World Series and beating a team like the Yankees, Roy Halladay is the best way to do it. It’s going to hurt to say goodbye to certain players. But we won’t be thinking about them a whole lot when we cram 2 million people into Philadelphia again to celebrate our second championship in three years.
